Portugal orders Polymarket to cease operations, global regulatory storm in prediction markets intensifies

The Portuguese gambling regulatory authority SRIJ recently issued a ban on the Polymarket platform, requiring it to cease operations in Portugal within 48 hours. This move further highlights the regulatory pressures faced by prediction markets worldwide and marks Portugal as the latest country to take a tough stance.

Over 100 Million Euro Bets Trigger Rapid Response from Portuguese Regulators

The reason Portugal acted swiftly against Polymarket is closely related to the betting activity on the platform during the recent presidential election. Data shows that during this election, the total bets on Polymarket exceeded 103 million euros (about $120 million), a figure significant enough to attract regulatory attention.

According to SRIJ’s notice, Polymarket does not have authorization to offer gambling services in Portugal. The online gambling law enacted in 2015 explicitly states that betting on political events is illegal. The law only permits users to place bets on sports events, casino games, and horse racing.

Why Portugal Takes a Hard Line on Political Prediction Markets

As a decentralized prediction market, Polymarket allows users to bet on political, sports, or other real-world events by purchasing shares of specific outcomes. This operational model violates clear legal restrictions in Portugal. Regulators point out that the site lacks proper authorization, and its operation in Portugal essentially constitutes illegal gambling activity.

Although Polymarket is still accessible in Portugal at present, regulators may soon require internet service providers to block access to the platform, meaning Portuguese users will lose access entirely. Meanwhile, other prediction market platforms like Kalshi, Myriad, and Limitless still appear to be accessible in Portugal, indicating that regulators are primarily targeting Polymarket.

Global Regulatory Challenges for Prediction Markets: Over 30 Countries Imposing Restrictions

Since its establishment in 2020, Polymarket has faced restrictions in over 30 countries to varying degrees. Countries including Singapore, Russia, Belgium, and Italy have already taken regulatory actions against it. Recently, Ukraine also joined this list, blocking Polymarket under a framework that strengthens online gambling regulation.

Regulatory attitudes vary across countries. Belgium and similar nations have adopted the strictest measures, directly blacklisting Polymarket; whereas France has been relatively moderate, allowing local users to access the platform in “view-only” mode but restricting actual trading functions. This inconsistency in global regulatory approaches presents significant challenges for Polymarket’s compliant operation.

Tokenized Securities Face Simultaneous Regulatory Scrutiny

While Polymarket faces strict regulation, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has issued new guidance on tokenized stocks. Whether tokenized stocks are recorded on the blockchain or not, they are subject to existing securities and derivatives regulations.

The SEC clearly distinguishes two types of tokenized products: one supported directly by issuers, representing genuine equity ownership; the other provided by third parties, typically offering synthetic exposure or custodial rights. Regulators aim to limit the spread of synthetic equity products to retail investors and encourage issuers to adopt fully regulated tokenized structures. This move indicates that global regulators are accelerating efforts to regulate and constrain crypto-related financial products.

The tightening of global regulation on prediction markets and the development of compliant frameworks for tokenized securities both reflect regulators’ focus on risk management. Portugal’s ban on Polymarket is merely the latest chapter in this worldwide regulatory storm.