Why are we bearish on Ethereum?

For a cryptocurrency like Ethereum, which has extremely dispersed holdings, there is no single institution capable of manipulating major market trends.

Ethereum's market trend is the result of the collective effort of all market participants after a battle between bulls and bears.

Trading volume reflects the true level of participation and capital flow in the market. As a "validator," trading volume quantifies the market forces behind the price, measuring the actual strength of buyers and sellers.

Therefore, the relationship between price and volume can usually provide more reliable trading signals.

During the sideways consolidation over the past two months, Ethereum's rebound volume was significantly smaller than the decline volume during October and November last year, and there was no massive bullish candle like the one in early April last year. This indicates that buying pressure remains relatively weak.

Additionally, the rebound volume between December 19 last year and January 14 this year was clearly smaller than the rebound volume between November 21 and December 9 last year, and the rebound high points have also decreased.

This further indicates that during the sideways consolidation, buying strength has weakened even more.

Therefore, the probability of Ethereum breaking downward next is significantly higher than breaking upward.

Once a downward breakout occurs, sellers will work together, and leveraged long positions will also act as an accelerant for the decline. This trend usually continues until the bulls are liquidated.

So, if Mr. Yi's position is truly liquidated, it is the result of the collective effort of the market and the power of the trend, not the manipulation of any large funds.