Like a Safe Haven but Actually Like an ATM: The True Story of Bitcoin in a Geopolitical Crisis

Recently, as global tensions rose from Trump’s threats against NATO allies regarding Greenland and potential actions in the Arctic, the market displayed an interesting pattern. While Bitcoin dropped by 6.6% in value, gold rose by 8.6%, reaching nearly $5,000. This event is not just about numbers—it reveals a deep challenge to how Bitcoin truly functions as a hedge against global uncertainty.

The Difference Between Gold and Bitcoin During Times of Fear

Gold and Bitcoin should serve similar roles in risk-averse investors’ portfolios. But in the real world, these two assets behave differently under market stress. Gold, throughout all periods of global concern, remains a held asset—and this is key to its success.

The reason is simple market physics. Bitcoin, due to its high liquidity and continuous trading, becomes a perfect “cash machine” when investors need cash. It’s like an ATM open 24/7, always ready to convert into real money in an emergency.

Liquidity as a Weapon: Why Bitcoin Sells Quickly in Stress Markets

“In times of stress and uncertainty, the desire for quick cash prevails,” wrote Greg Cipolaro, Global Head of Research at NYDIG. “This dynamic harms Bitcoin more than gold.”

On-chain data shows a clear pattern: former Bitcoin holders continue to transfer their coins to exchanges, ready to sell. This is the “seller overhang”—a pressure that continually pushes prices downward. Supply concentration is high between $85,000 and $90,000, with very little support at lower levels.

Gold’s situation is unusual. Central banks are buying at record levels, creating strong structural demand. While long-term holders are selling Bitcoin, major institutions are accumulating gold. This is an inverse dynamic—one is divesting, the other is accumulating.

The True Power of Bitcoin: Long-term Risks vs Daily Concerns

This is where the crucial distinction begins. Gold is perfect for episodic needs—days of war, tariff threats, daily confidence drops. It provides quick safety against immediate shocks.

Bitcoin, on the other hand, is designed for deeper concerns. “Bitcoin is more suitable for long-term change—the decline of fiat currency values, sovereign debt crises, deep geopolitical reorganization that takes years, not weeks,” says Cipolaro. “Until the market believes current risks are merely episodic, gold remains more attractive.”

The current situation returns to the age-old question: what is certain and what is deepening? Geopolitical tensions could end tomorrow, or trigger a deeper crisis. If it’s the former, gold wins. If it’s the start of a new world of higher tensions, Bitcoin could become more valuable in the coming years.

Central Banks and the Game of Value: Where Money Is Heading

Another part of the puzzle is institutional behavior. Central banks have committed to gold as part of their reserve strategy, creating ongoing demand independent of daily price movements. Bitcoin, in contrast, is more vulnerable to sudden shifts in investor sentiment.

Data is clear: approximately 63% of Bitcoin wealth has a cost basis above $87,990—the current price is close to $87.99K. This means many investors are at breakeven or small profit zones, increasing psychological pressure to exit positions at any sign of alarm.

The Waiting Game: When Change Will Come

Change may arrive—but not now. While the market interprets current geopolitical moves as temporary shocks, risk-averse investors continue to favor gold for peace of mind. Bitcoin remains the asset for those believing in larger, longer-term revolutionary change.

For the average investor, the message is simple: understand each asset’s role. Gold is for protection today. Bitcoin is for protection tomorrow.