Gold and silver break sloping ceilings as Bitcoin stalls in January

Precious metals extended their bull run in January, approaching price levels that markets recently considered unattainable highs. What is more significant than these figures, however, is how the sloping ceilings — those price targets that were thought to be limits — have been transformed into mere stepping stones in metals’ race to all-time highs. Meanwhile, bitcoin remains stuck in a tight range, reflecting a fundamental reconfiguration in how investors are voicing their macroeconomic concerns.

Precious metals close January with historic gains

In late January, spot gold traded near $4,950 per ounce, racking up monthly gains of more than 7 percent. Silver was even more spectacular, closing the month with advances close to 30 percent and touching levels just below $99. Bitcoin, on the other hand, remained relatively stable around $89,930 to $90,000, with no significant movements recorded over the same period.

The divergent performance between these three asset classes has caught the attention of analysts and traders alike. As precious metals racked up their best months in years, the world’s most important digital asset lagged behind, despite the shared narrative about “hard assets” and stores of value.

Pitched roofs or market landmarks? The role of predictions

What is truly revealing is how prediction markets are pricing in the immediate future. On platforms like Polymarket, traders don’t see prices of $5,000 for gold and $100 for silver as unreachable tops, but as likely benchmarks that could be reached before the end of the month.

Contracts traded on these markets show a pronounced bias toward prices at or above those levels. For gold, markets assign a 97 percent implied probability of reaching $5,000, surpassing even ethereum in this race to historic milestones. In the case of silver, there is a similar conviction, with substantial positions for a move towards $100 and high probabilities of closing January above $85.

This dynamic illustrates a major conceptual shift: sloping ceilings that once represented psychological resilience have become achievable targets, reflecting traders’ growing confidence that these levels will be pierced. Goldman Sachs fueled this outlook by raising its price target on gold to $5,400 per ounce by the end of 2026, beating previous projections of $4,900.

Divergent volatility: why is silver leading the rally?

A key technical aspect distinguishes the behavior of these markets: volatility patterns. Silver’s 30-day realized volatility has climbed to over 60 points, reflecting broad and frequent moves. In contrast, gold’s volatility has seen a more moderate increase, remaining in the low 20s, suggesting a more orderly and controlled appreciation.

Bitcoin represents a curious middle ground. Although it trades near recent highs, its realized volatility has been compressed towards the mid-30s, indicating that traders do not expect significant turbulence in the near term. This volatility compression in bitcoin is particularly notable given the context of macroeconomic uncertainty that has driven demand for safe-haven assets.

The difference in volatility reflects something deeper: investors are reallocating their demand for safety. While silver experiences more aggressive moves as part of its recovery, gold maintains a more stable and predictable move. Bitcoin, on the other hand, behaves as a high-beta risk asset even when it is supposed to represent “digital hard money.”

Gold vs Bitcoin: Where the demand for security flows in 2026

The divergence between the behavior of gold and bitcoin at the beginning of 2026 is instructive. Investors seeking refuge in times of uncertainty are explicitly choosing physical precious metals over digital tokens, despite arguments about bitcoin’s scheduled scarcity.

For traders on Polymarket, bitcoin is expected to remain within a relatively tight range around $85,000 during January, without the bullish benchmarks that dominate precious metals predictions. This modest expectation contrasts sharply with the conviction about gold and silver.

The underlying explanation seems to lie in the nature of the risk faced by the markets. In times of deep macroeconomic uncertainty, institutional and private investors prefer verifiable tangible assets: vaulted gold, physical silver. Bitcoin, while theoretically defensible as a store of value, is still perceived as a risk-on asset correlated with overall market sentiment.

Market sentiment and the return of confidence in tangible assets

Market sentiment indicators paint an eloquent picture. Indices such as JM Bullion’s Fear & Greed Index for precious metals signal extreme optimism, reaching rarely seen levels. Simultaneously, equivalent indicators for cryptocurrencies remain stuck in fear territory, reflecting a persistent gap in market sentiment.

This contrast in sentiment is the determining factor behind the sloping roofs in precious metals. The gold trade has taken on characteristics of a massive movement, with its nominal value increasing substantially in individual sessions. The crowd has arrived, and with it, the conviction that price targets previously considered impossible will be achieved.

However, optimism in precious metals has not spread to the crypto universe, where caution persists. This fork in sentiment explains why January 2026 will be remembered as the month when gold and silver’s sloping tops were finally broken, while bitcoin remained waiting for its turn.