Bitcoin Struggling as Gold Reaches the Top: The Idiosyncratic Nature of the New 2026 Cycle

As global markets go through a phase of strong risk aversion, an increasingly evident rift is emerging between bitcoin and precious metals. Bitcoin is crashing to $85.26K with a loss of 4.96% in the last 24 hours, while gold and silver continue to hit all-time highs. According to Philippe Bekhazi, CEO of crypto trading firm XBTO, this divergence does not reflect a loss of confidence in bitcoin, but the most obvious manifestation of a profound structural change: bitcoin’s entry into a completely new era, where the idiosyncratic nature of crypto markets plays a crucial role in price movements.

The central question is not whether bitcoin will continue to appreciate in the long term, but rather how investors will need to recalibrate their expectations in the transition from a speculative to a mature institutional market.

Farewell to Venture Volatility: Towards a Post-IPO Institutional Era

Bitcoin is no longer charting the path of a frontier asset. “There’s a fundamental difference between Bitcoin and what we call crypto,” Bekhazi pointed out during an interview with CoinDesk. Bitcoin, in his view, has entered a post-IPO phase characterized by institutions that prioritize stability, liquidity and sophisticated risk management strategies over the search for explosive returns typical of the venture phase.

This transformation has profound consequences on how the market behaves. The era of speculative rallies and reflective volatility is gradually giving way to more mature dynamics. Regulated vehicles, corporate treasuries, and derivatives markets are absorbing bitcoin’s supply, naturally squeezing volatility and making price action less dramatic than in the past.

This does not mean that bitcoin’s fundamental thesis has been compromised. Structural demand remains the main long-term macroeconomic driver. Institutional ETF flows and corporate purchases continue to expand in an environment of fixed and predictable bitcoin supply. This imbalance, Bekhazi argues, continues to support the long-term valuation even if prices appear to be within narrow ranges in the short term.

Why Fragmented Markets Create Idiosyncratic Problems in Crypto Trading

A crucial element in this new era is the role of the market microstructure. Bekhazi pointed to the cascade of liquidations in October, when more than $19 billion in leveraged positions were eliminated from crypto markets due to tariffs and geopolitical uncertainty. This episode highlighted how the idiosyncratic nature of the fragmented structure of crypto exchanges amplifies price dislocations.

“We have large investors who want to gain exposure to bitcoin, but simultaneously need to hedge against sharp declines,” the XBTO CEO said. This dynamic of risk transfer has become the main driver of returns in the new cycle, not the net direction of price.

The fragmented structure of crypto markets – a purely idiosyncratic problem that characterizes exchanges – allows active managers to act as liquidity providers during price gaps caused by sudden liquidations, generating alpha from the microstructure even while bitcoin’s long-term fundamentals remain intact. It is in these moments of misalignment that the most interesting opportunities are created for those who understand the underlying dynamics.

Gold Emerges as a Global Safe-Haven Currency

As bitcoin faces a downturn, gold and silver are experiencing a remarkable renaissance. The LBMA’s 2026 forecast surveys have established the most bullish consensus of the century, with analysts predicting an average increase in the price of gold of almost 40% compared to 2025 and a near doubling of silver after the biggest forecast errors of the previous year.

Bekhazi believes that this rotation into precious metals is cyclical rather than existential. Gold remains “the world’s safe-haven currency as macroeconomic tensions escalate,” particularly for governments and central banks that lack the liquidity and political mandate to quickly move massive sums of bitcoin during crises.

Bekazi’s most acute observation is that relative valuation matters more than absolute prices. The bitcoin-gold ratio is the right tool to measure this cycle. Gold absorbs the immediate urgency and scale of governments’ needs, while bitcoin – increasingly treated by institutional investors as a balance sheet asset – develops its value proposition over much longer time horizons.

Market Movement: Current Data Reflects Widespread Risk Aversion

The past 24 hours have seen widespread pressure on all major digital assets, reflecting a broader shift in global markets:

Bitcoin continues to suffer from the geopolitical uncertainty environment, trading at $85.26K with a decline of 4.96%. Derivatives data indicates that traders are building short positions in the futures market rather than aggressively liquidating in the spot market, suggesting strategic caution.

Ethereum underperformed bitcoin, collapsing below $2.84K with a loss of 5.55%. The strong selling in the spot market reflects less conviction about alternative tokens during risk-off phases.

Dogecoin It was down 5.69% to $0.12, falling below the key support at $0.1218 on high volume. Traders are monitoring the $0.115-$0.12 zone as a critical decision area.

International stock markets: Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 1.28% while Asia-Pacific stocks posted broad-based losses, following Wall Street’s worst session in three months. President Donald Trump has stepped up tariff threats, shaking up global risk sentiment.

Gold and Silver: Both metals continue to set new all-time highs, cementing their role as preferred safe-haven assets during periods of macroeconomic turbulence.

What Could Compromise the Bitcoin Thesis in the New Institutional Order

Bekhazi was explicit in defining the parameters according to which the bitcoin narrative could crisis. If bitcoin were to be treated as a highly volatile technological asset during periods of inflation or systemic crises, the “digital gold” narrative would immediately fail.

Consistent flows out of ETFs during a simple 20% correction would signal that institutional hands are weak and the post-IPO cycle is not yet established. Similarly, rising prices accompanied by a collapse in on-chain activity or stablecoin usage would suggest that the institutional era is built on speculation rather than genuine economic utility.

For the time being, markets are testing whether bitcoin can maintain stability while gold absorbs macroeconomic stress. Whether this underperformance will reflect healthy market maturation or mispricing with respect to precious metals is the question that will define the next phase of the crypto cycle in 2026.