Portugal intensifies the fight against predictive markets: Polymarket ceases operations after bets for over 100 million euros

Portugal joins the growing list of nations taking drastic action against Polymarket. Portugal’s gambling regulator, the Serviço de Regulação e Inspeção de Jogos (SRIJ), has ordered the immediate cessation of the predictive betting platform’s operations in the country.

Portugal’s regulatory action: the details of the intervention

The decision was taken after traders had recorded record bets during the Portuguese presidential election on January 18. According to Rádio Renascença, the total volume of bets on the vote exceeded €103 million, equivalent to about $120 million. The regulator ordered Polymarket to stop all activity in Portuguese territory within 48 hours, claiming that the platform operates without the necessary official authorization.

The SRIJ explicitly stated: “The website is not allowed to offer betting in Portugal, as national legislation prohibits transactions involving political events, both nationally and internationally.” According to Portugal’s 2015 Online Gambling Law, only sports betting, casino games, and horse racing are allowed. Bets on political results remain strictly prohibited.

The regulatory framework: why Polymarket is considered illegal in Portugal

Polymarket operates as a predictive marketplace based on blockchain technology, allowing users to buy shares on the possible outcomes of real events—whether it’s politics, sports, or other global developments. Currently, the website still remains accessible from Portuguese devices, although authorities may soon order internet service providers to block it completely.

Other predictive betting platforms such as Kalshi, Myriad and Limitless are also available in the country, but could face similar restrictive measures. Portugal is thus moving in line with a global trend of tightening supervision towards this category of platforms.

A global crisis for blockchain predictive markets

Polymarket, founded in 2020, is already facing limitations in over 30 countries, including Singapore, Russia, Belgium, Italy and, recently, Ukraine. Some countries have blacklisted the website, while others—such as France—have taken a more nuanced approach, allowing local users to access the platform exclusively in “view-only” mode, effectively preventing new positions from being opened.

Portugal’s intervention represents a further chapter in the progressive global restriction of predictive markets, highlighting widespread regulatory concern about betting on political outcomes and the use of digital assets for gaming purposes.

The Regulatory Outlook in the United States: An Interesting Contrast

Meanwhile, a regulatory opportunity is emerging in the U.S. that is potentially more favorable to digital markets. Paul Atkins, chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), said that “the time is opportune” for 401(k) retirement plans to include digital assets, as long as this is done according to measured parameters with adequate protections for retirees.

In parallel, the U.S. Senate Agriculture Committee has proposed legislation on the structure of the cryptocurrency market that would expand the role of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and clarify the boundaries of its oversight compared to the SEC. CFTC Chairman Michael Selig predicted that digital assets will “flourish” under future U.S. regulations, suggesting that clear regulatory standards at the national level could call for blockchain companies in the U.S. and solidify the country as the predominant global center for crypto markets.

This contrast between Portugal’s restrictive approach and the more permissive attitude of the United States underscores the emerging regulatory divergences in the digital asset sector internationally.