XRP token market's 2022 pattern returns: Crypto investors' loss pressure increases

According to a recent analysis by blockchain analytics firm Glassnode, a critical signal has been lit for the XRP market. The cryptocurrency’s current price structure and investor behavior patterns are starting to show a similar structure to early 2022, which led to a multi-month bear run. By deciphering the market mechanisms revealed by Glassnode’s data, we can see the risk structure faced by investors entering the token market.

XRP’s Dangerous Cycle Suggested by On-Chain Data

In cryptocurrency on-chain analysis, the average purchase price of holders and subsequent market behavior are key predictors. According to Glassnode’s research, the current XRP market structure is strikingly similar to the situation in February 2022. At the time, XRP was trading around $0.78 before entering a prolonged downward phase, pushing it down to around $0.30 in the middle of the year.

The essence of this similarity structure lies in the division of market participants by the time axis. While new entrants who bought XRP within the past week to a month are already securing profits, many holders who bought six months to a year ago still have unrealized losses. This cost-based split is likely to be a catalyst for increased market instability in time.

Cost Structure Split for Old and New Investors: A Source of Selling Pressure

From the perspective of market mechanisms, the implications of this dynamic are clear. The asymmetry, where short-term buyers profit while long-term holders remain at a loss, has the potential to translate into severe selling pressure over time if prices stagnate.

According to Glassnode’s on-chain tracking capabilities, the market structure shows that the cost threshold by new buyers is below the purchase price of holders 6 months ~ 12 months ago. This is a classic sign of market vulnerability. While new entrants start scalping-like profit-taking, old entrants tend to fall into a waiting state of “when will they come back?” The result of this psychological warfare eventually turns into a large number of stop-loss orders.

The Vicious Cycle of the $2 Psychological Threshold and Realized Losses

The $2 level in the XRP market is more than just a technical support line. This level is a psychological resistance zone that is well above the cost threshold for many medium-term holders, and the battle here determines the overall market sentiment.

Since the second quarter of 2025, the scale of realized losses shown by Glassnode’s data is staggering. Each $2 retest results in realized losses ranging from $500 million to $1.2 billion on a weekly basis. This is by no means a small number and strongly suggests that many investors are moving to reduce their positions at this price point. In other words, $2 acts as a “psychological gate to the exit,” and every time it reaches this point, holders are concentrated on taking profits.

Current Market Dynamics: A Tug-of-War between Short-Term Buyers and Long-Term Holders

As of January 29, 2026, XRP is hovering around $1.82. It recorded a 24-hour decline of 4.90% and is currently held by 7,553,647 addresses. While this statistic illustrates the diversity of market participants, it also speaks to the conflicts of interest that come with that diversity.

Among traders and market observers, $1.80 is seen as a new key support level. If a sustained recovery between $1.87 and $1.90 is observed, many believe it is a corrective rebound and not the beginning of a deeper decline. However, on the contrary, if this band falls below it, it technically means exposure of vulnerabilities.

Currently, this market structure for XRP remains caught between renewed demand from short-term buyers and residual supply from long-term holders who are still looking for an exit. If the risk-off phase of the cryptocurrency market as a whole, especially the ripple effect of the Bitcoin correction, adds to this dynamic even more tense.

It is important for investors participating in the token market to understand the psychological and technical implications of this price level. While there is no guarantee that the pattern of 2022 will be fully replicated, the longer the split in the cost-based structure continues, the more the burden will be placed on investors who have bought at recent highs. The market is watching the outcome of this tug-of-war.