At worst, a new era of Bitcoin brought about by institutional investors - market maturity reflected by the sharp rise in gold

As of January 29, 2026, Bitcoin has fallen to the $83,700 level, marking a decline of over 6% in 24 hours. Meanwhile, gold continues to reach new all-time highs above $5,500. This stark contrast is not just about market volatility but about a fundamental structural shift in the crypto market.

According to XBTO CEO Philippe Bekazi, this worst-case scenario is evidence that Bitcoin has entered a “post-IPO era” led by institutional investors. The speculative upward phase of the former frontier asset has come to an end, and the market is now entering a new phase.

Falling to $83,700, the reason for Bitcoin’s weakness - volatility compression in the era of institutional investors

Several factors are intertwined behind Bitcoin’s recent decline from $89,000. While geopolitical risks and selling pressure in the bond market were the main triggers, Bekazi notes that the move itself symbolizes the characteristics of the institutional era.

“Bitcoin is no longer traded as a frontier asset, institutional investors are not in raw beta, but focused on stability, liquidity, and risk management.”

In Bitcoin, which has been institutionalized as a regulated financial instrument, the company’s treasury department and derivatives market absorb the supply while the price fluctuations are compressed. The venture-style market characterized by explosive rallies and reflective volatility is a thing of the past. Rather, volatility compression is evidence of Bitcoin’s maturity.

Meanwhile, Ether hovered around $2,780, down 7.9% in 24 hours. Compared to Bitcoin, it has a lower defensive positioning, and the sale of altcoins in the risk-averse phase is prominent.

Shift to an emergency currency: Bitcoin relativity assessment above $5,500 gold

Gold and silver continue to reach record highs after the LBMA 2026 Forecast Survey turned the most bullish of the century. Analysts expect gold to rise by about 40% from 2025 and silver to nearly double, and its nominal value has increased by about $1.6 trillion in one day.

The stagnation in Bitcoin’s relative performance under this situation is not just a weakness but a reflection of a shift in capital allocation. Bekazi expects investors to turn from Bitcoin to gold as macroeconomic stresses intensify, positioning gold as “the world’s contingency currency when things go wrong.”

Gold remains the only reliable risk aversion, especially for governments and central banks that do not have liquidity or the authority to quickly move large scales to Bitcoin. Even if it turns out to be the worst, this structural division of roles will not change.

Structural demand and cyclical rotation: the source of long-term support for Bitcoin

However, Bekazi emphasizes that Bitcoin’s long-term investment thesis has not changed. What matters is the supply and demand structure.

Amid a fixed and predictable Bitcoin supply, ETFs and institutional inflows continue to increase structurally. This supply-demand imbalance continues to support long-term valuations, independent of short-term price slowness.

When nearly $19 billion in leveraged positions were blown away across the crypto market in the liquidation chain triggered by the October tariffs, institutional investors’ activities were focused on risk transfer rather than direction. The current situation where large investors want exposure to Bitcoin but need to protect themselves from the risk of a sharp decline speaks to the maturity of the market.

Even in the worst phase, this balance of risk management and structural demand will continue to form a medium-term support level for Bitcoin.

Testing Market Maturity: Is Relative Underperformance a Good Thing or a Concern?

Currently, the market is testing whether Bitcoin can remain stable, while gold absorbs macroeconomic stress. Whether Bitcoin’s relative decline in performance is a sign of market maturity or due to misvaluation will determine the next cycle.

Bekazi also clearly hinted at the conditions under which the hypothesis would collapse. If Bitcoin is traded as a high-beta tech asset during periods of inflation or crisis, the digital gold theory will fail. If we see sustained ETF outflows during the normal 20% correction period, it signals institutional weakness. If prices rise while on-chain activity and stablecoin usage collapse, it will signal a speculative-based institutional era.

In the worst market, it is essential to keep an eye on these signals.