Options Market Projects Bitcoin Could Potentially Break $80,000 in June

Bitcoin’s sinking below the $91,000 level from its peak of $95,000 in early 2026 reflects increasingly cautious market sentiment. The options instrument, which serves as a barometer of professional traders’ expectations, now displays significant bearish signals. Data from decentralized trading platforms shows that market participants view the possibility of Bitcoin falling past $80,000 by the end of June by 30 percent, a scenario that would bring the price back to its lowest level since April 2025.

Trump Tariff Threat and Greenland Crisis Increase Market Volatility

The pressure on Bitcoin did not arise from a vacuum. President Donald Trump has announced plans to take control of Greenland and threatened to impose a 10% tariff on imports from 10 European countries that oppose the initiative. This geopolitical tension became a major catalyst pushing the crypto market into a zone of uncertainty.

Similar dynamics have occurred before—in April 2025, Bitcoin briefly fell to $75,000 when Trump imposed sweeping tariffs on global imports. Analysis from experts suggests that the ongoing tensions between the United States and Europe open the risk of a regime shift towards higher volatility. This risk, according to market observers, is not yet fully reflected in Bitcoin’s current spot price.

Data from decentralized platforms: a clear downward signal

Derive.xyz, a decentralized protocol that provides on-chain and perpetual options services, shows a large concentration of open interest in put options contracts between the $75,000 to $80,000 strike levels. A similar pattern is also seen on Deribit, the industry’s largest centralized options platform. This phenomenon indicates the expectation from the professional trading community that the price will fall deeper towards the mid-$70,000 range.

Sean Dawson, head of the research division of Derive.xyz, revealed that the options market skew – a metric that measures the price difference between call and put options – remains in the negative zone. “A negative skew indicates downside concerns in the short term,” Dawson told CoinDesk. Meanwhile, the probability of Bitcoin rising above $120,000 in the same time span is only 19 percent, much lower compared to the decline scenario.

Understanding the Call and Put Option Mechanism in Price Prediction

To understand why options data is so important in analyzing market sentiment, it is necessary to understand how these instruments work. An option is a derivative contract that gives a buyer the right (not the obligation) to buy or sell an asset at a specific price in the future.

Call options allow traders to bet that the price of Bitcoin will rise. The buyer pays a small premium to lock the purchase price at a predetermined level. If Bitcoin soars above that level, buyers will profit by buying cheap and selling high.

On the other hand, put options provide an opportunity to bet on price drops. By paying a premium, traders secure the right to sell Bitcoin at a certain price. If the price falls below the set level, the put holder will profit selling at the high price. In both cases, the risk is limited to the cost of the premium paid if the market does not move as expected.

At the time of this writing, Bitcoin is trading at the $83.97K level with a decline of 6.23 percent in the last 24 hours. The large concentration of open interest in put options reflects that market professionals are massively protecting themselves from the downside risks that can occur.

A Weakening Dollar Doesn’t Lift Bitcoin, What’s the Reason?

An interesting phenomenon arises when observing the dynamics of the United States dollar. Unusually, Bitcoin did not experience an increase in price even though the value of the dollar weakened against other currencies. Normally, the weak separation of fiat currencies should drive demand on alternative assets like Bitcoin.

JPMorgan strategists explained that the current weakening of the dollar is driven by short-term factors such as liquidity flows and market sentiment, rather than fundamental changes in economic growth or monetary policy expectations. They expect the dollar to stabilize as the United States economic data strengthens in the coming quarters.

Because the market does not view the weakening of the dollar as a permanent macro shift, Bitcoin tends to be traded more like a risky asset sensitive to market liquidity than as a reliable dollar hedge. As a result, gold and emerging markets are becoming the main beneficiaries of diversification away from the dollar.

The sentiment reflected in the options market provides a comprehensive picture: professional investors are positioning themselves to face higher volatility, with the possibility of a bigger decline than gains in the coming months.