Market Expectations for Bitcoin in 2026: The Opportunity $100K Continues to Fade

Market sentiment towards Bitcoin is increasingly bearish as hopes for the asset to reach $100,000 in the near term fade. Major prediction platforms indicate very limited short-term optimism, with the market focusing on prolonged consolidation scenarios rather than a quick rebound to six-figure levels.

Latest data as of January 30 shows Bitcoin trading around $82.59K, reflecting a significant gap from the $100K target that remains a key market focus. Macroeconomic uncertainty, liquidity pressures, and ongoing geopolitical risks continue to weigh on sentiment, creating a rational bearish outlook among institutional traders and speculators.

Prediction Platforms Show High Skepticism for January-February

The bearish market outlook becomes clearer from the probability data of leading prediction platforms. As of the end of January, the chances of Bitcoin surpassing $100,000 remain very low:

• Polymarket: ~6% chance BTC exceeds $100,000 before January 31
• Kalshi: ~7% chance BTC reaches $100,000 before the end of the month

Bitcoin’s all-time high in 2026 so far is $97,900 recorded on January 14, reflecting a failed reversal attempt. Interestingly, the last time the asset traded above $100,000 was on November 13, before a sharp sell-off dramatically changed market dynamics.

Historically, Bitcoin has a track record of recovering from similar declines. Data shows previous drops of 25.5% followed by BTC regaining six figures within about 93 days. If historical patterns repeat, the $100K level could be reached by mid-February. However, market participants’ predictions seem far more pessimistic about this scenario.

Downside Projections: Bearish Market Anticipates Further Corrections

Market expectations show a different, more cautious trend. Kalshi participants assign about a 65% probability that Bitcoin will surpass $100,000 before June—indicating expectations of a much longer consolidation. Meanwhile, Polymarket data reveals traders’ hopes for continued decline:

• 65% chance BTC falls to $80,000 before returning to $100K
• 54% chance of a bottom at $70,000 in 2026
• 50% chance of touching $65,000
• 42% chance BTC drops as low as $60,000

This probability distribution reflects a strongly bearish skew—indicating a dominant bearish sentiment among prediction market participants. Tightening global financial conditions, rising bond yields, and geopolitical tensions support this conservative outlook.

Continued Buying Strategy Despite Worsening Bearish Market

Amid strong bearish expectations, Strategy companies remain committed to Bitcoin in the long term. Prediction markets also analyze the possibility of Bitcoin falling below the company’s average cost basis, currently around $75,979 per BTC.

Polymarket data shows:

• 75% probability that Bitcoin will trade below Strategy’s cost basis by 2026

However, this bearish outlook does not shift institutional confidence in the long term. Less than 26% chance of Strategy selling Bitcoin this year, while the market assigns an 84% probability that the company will hold more than 800,000 BTC by December 31, 2026.

Last week, Strategy expanded its cash holdings to 709,715 BTC by purchasing 22,305 BTC worth approximately $2.13 billion—an approach that reinforces long-term accumulation despite the worsening short-term price prospects.

Bearish Market Sentiment Reflects Fundamental Shift

Data from various prediction platforms highlight a broader sentiment shift since the October 2025 sell-off. While long-term confidence among institutions and cash buyers remains intact, short-term optimism has faded dramatically.

With market conditions reflecting a 50% bullish and 50% bearish sentiment, traders seem focused on capital preservation rather than breakout speculation. The dominant bearish outlook indicates traders are waiting for clearer macro catalysts, liquidity stabilization, or new ETF flows before reassessing the feasibility of reaching $100,000.

Looking ahead, prediction platforms consistently suggest that the next significant momentum for Bitcoin may come in the second half of 2026—not within the next few weeks. This bearish expectation reflects a rational prudence given the macro environment’s ongoing instability, according to Cointelegraph.