This week is also a testing period. The US government shutdown storm is approaching, and Bitcoin and Ethereum are facing significant volatility.

Next week’s news environment carries extremely high uncertainty, with Bitcoin and Ethereum both at critical junctures poised for potential breakout. This week also serves as an important window to test market resilience, as multiple policy risks stacking up could trigger chain reactions.

Technical Dilemma: Weekly Recovery Difficult, Key Levels as Defensive Bottoms

Currently, BTC is hovering around $83.89K (24-hour change -0.23%), still unable to reclaim the critical support level at 90,800. If the weekly candle ultimately fails to stabilize above 90,800, there is a risk of a double bottom, and downward testing of the previous lows near 85,000 and even 80,000 should be watched carefully.

Against the backdrop of persistent liquidity pressure, this week’s performance is crucial. If the weekly close falls below 90,800, next week may see a brief rebound followed by renewed weakness. The combined effect of technical fragility and news uncertainty has brought market risk close to a critical point.

ETH is also stuck in a stalemate, with key ranges locked between 3044 and 3157. If ETH cannot at least recover 3044, its subsequent trend will closely mirror BTC, including altcoins, potentially repeating this rhythm. If BTC cannot hold above 90,800 and drops again, ETH could retest 2720~2811 or even previous lows. Currently, ETH is priced at $2.68K (24-hour change -4.24%), significantly down from recent highs.

News Impact: FOMC Rate Cut Probability Hits New Low, Government Shutdown Crisis Worsens

This Wednesday (28th), the FOMC meeting will take place, with the latest market expectation of only a 4.4% chance of rate cuts, essentially marking the end of this rate-cut cycle.

A bigger black swan is on the horizon: January 31st—the US government shutdown crisis is approaching again. Democratic senators threaten to oppose funding for the Department of Homeland Security if it is included in the budget. According to on-chain data from Polymarket, the probability of another US government shutdown has surged to 74%, hitting a recent high. If the government shuts down, market liquidity will be heavily impacted again, potentially becoming the biggest source of uncertainty next week.

Former President Trump previously issued warnings about tariffs increasing by 100% over Canada issues, but the Canadian government quickly stated it does not seek a free trade agreement with China, so the tariff escalation has not yet occurred. However, based on the recent intensity of events—ranging from the Maduro arrest in Venezuela, Powell’s criminal investigation, the Greenland tariff flashpoint, to the Canada crisis and government shutdown—the execution of Trump’s new policies appears to be accelerating, aiming to resolve issues quickly before the midterm elections and stimulate economic performance.

On-Chain Data Speaks: Whales Remain Steadfast, Mid-Sized Whales Reducing Holdings

According to on-chain data, large whales holding between 100K and 1M BTC show strong confidence. Last week, they added 922 BTC net, despite a sell-off of -3,984 BTC yesterday, they bought back 1,018 BTC today, reflecting that buying interest remains despite volatility and long-term holding intentions.

The so-called “Ancient Super Whales” are even more fearless, with their holdings (223K ETH, 1,000 BTC, 510K SOL long positions) remaining rock solid. Whether it’s recent news bombardments or market fluctuations, their positions have not wavered, with clear goals and determination.

In contrast, mid-sized whales holding 100K~1M ETH have been continuously reducing their holdings. This week, ETH holdings among large whales decreased by about 2.1M, surpassing Bitmine’s staked amount of 1.94M, implying that after deducting staked ETH, the market has additionally decreased by approximately 150K ETH. This indicates that concerns over uncertainty have spread to whale-level investors.

Macro Perspective: Trump’s New Policies Intensify, Seeking Opportunities Amid Crisis

In the nearly one month since January 1, a series of major international events have erupted—Venezuela political turmoil, Fed Chair investigations, Greenland tariff disputes, Canadian trade negotiations, and government shutdown crises. Bitcoin faces critical market pressure levels.

Behind these events lies a clear logic: Trump is striving to achieve political wins through active economic policies and international negotiations before the midterm elections. The market’s rally often serves as the best showcase of political achievement. While this period is indeed dominated by traditional safe-haven assets like gold, it also presents a “window of opportunity” for sharp traders.

Extreme market uncertainty, liquidity pressure, and news bombardment—these factors often seed long-term opportunities. For patient participants, this week and the coming weeks’ performance will determine the future trend and are key periods for accumulating positions.