The four stages of a bear market and our current position

Most bear markets: the early to mid-term is characterized by "gradual decline + repeated torment," while the later stage often involves "emotion-driven accelerated decline (panic waterfall)," but not in a straight line, rather "rapid sell-off → technical rebound → further decline." There are also rare cases where the decline continues silently until no one is talking, but that is an extreme liquidity exhaustion phase.
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Bear markets are usually divided into 4 stages:
① Early Bear: Trend breakdown phase
Characteristics: High levels weaken, each decline attracts "bottom-fishing funds."
Market psychology: "This is just a correction."
Trend: Decline is slow, but the structure is already broken.
② Mid Bear: Classic gradual decline phase (the most torturous)
Characteristics: Range-bound + slow downward movement, each rebound weaker than the last.
Market psychology: "No rise, no fall, it's boring."
Trend: Time is traded for space (testing patience).
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Most people die here, not from liquidation, but from confidence being drained.
③ Late Bear: Emotional collapse phase (accelerated decline)
Suddenly appears: consecutive long bearish candles, volume-driven decline, concentrated liquidations.
News: dense negative news, "industry is doomed."
Market psychology: "I give up, sell and be done."
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This phase is often the fastest, harshest, and shortest decline.
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Technically: breaking all support levels watched by traders, cleansing the last batch of stubborn longs, leverage wiped out in one go.
This is the "acceleration phase" of the bear market.
④ End of Bear: Liquidity exhaustion + sideways consolidation
Characteristics: extremely low trading volume, almost no discussion.
Market psychology: "Anyway, I’m done playing."
Trend: Long period of sideways movement, quietly building a bottom.
Remember what I said? The bottom is not formed in a day; the true bottom often emerges when no one is paying attention.
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Is it possible to have continuous decline without acceleration? Possibly, but under very strict conditions:
No leverage, no systemic crashes, market participants are extremely cooled down.
Crypto markets rarely meet all three conditions because: high leverage, concentrated liquidity, and extreme emotions are typical features of this market.
So the conclusion is: the most likely time for "accelerated decline" in a crypto bear market is in the mid to late stages, not during the gradual decline of the early to mid-term.
How to identify the transition into the accelerated phase of the late bear? Focus on signals:
- Daily candles with continuous high volume and long bearish candles
- Mainstream coins break below key monthly/weekly support levels
- Sudden surge in liquidation amounts
- Everyone begins to doubt the market and themselves, "Is it going to zero?"
When is the bottom formed?
- Continuous shrinking of volume
- No volume on each decline
- No news, no noise
- Long-term narrow sideways movement, no further breakdown
- Fake breakdowns and fake breakouts increase
This is the time to bottom fish; the bottom needs to be slowly formed, and the cycle will not be short, giving participants enough time.
Gradual decline tests patience, accelerated decline tests faith; the true bottom usually appears after the "last acceleration."
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Currently, we are still in the mid-stage of the bear market. Take it slow, no need to rush~