Gold futures rebound boosts, Bitcoin faces risk aversion shock

The global financial markets are experiencing a subtle yet profound shift. As gold futures strengthen toward nearly $4,500 per ounce, cryptocurrencies—especially Bitcoin—are caught in a persistent weakness. This divergence reflects a fundamental change in market participants’ attitude toward risk assets, with Bitcoin long regarded as a safe haven, now underperforming amid this wave of risk aversion.

Rising Risk Aversion, Divergence Between Gold Futures and Crypto Assets

Market sentiment remains subdued, and the most illustrative phenomenon is a seemingly contradictory one: despite the US Dollar Index (DXY) continuing to weaken—falling below 98.00, approaching its lowest level since early October—risk assets like Bitcoin have not benefited. On the contrary, traditional safe-haven assets such as gold futures are rising, which is the most direct reflection of a shift in market psychology.

FxPro Chief Market Analyst Алекс Купциевич pointed out that “the strong rise in gold futures, coupled with the correlation with other precious metals and the continued softening of the dollar, emphasizes a deeper shift—fundamental risk attitudes are changing, as confirmed by the large-scale sell-off in the global bond markets.” This observation touches on the core issue: investors are adjusting their risk preferences.

Weakening Dollar, Bond Sell-offs, and Market Psychology Reassessment

Interestingly, the decline of the dollar index usually favors risk assets like Bitcoin, but current market dynamics break this traditional correlation. Falling bond yields, a weakening dollar, and rising gold futures should theoretically stimulate risk assets. Yet, Bitcoin is declining, indicating that market concerns have shifted to a more fundamental issue: economic growth prospects and market risk tolerance.

Купциевич further warned that “in the coming weeks, we may see more significant declines in crypto prices, and this risk-averse sentiment could spread to stock markets and emerging market currencies.” This suggests that the rebound in gold futures, to some extent, signals the beginning of a broader market correction cycle.

Latest Bitcoin Dynamics: $78,900 Dilemma and Psychological Threshold

As of the latest data, Bitcoin hovers around $78,900, with a 24-hour decline of -6.13%. As the bellwether of the crypto market, Bitcoin’s weakness is reflected not only in the numbers but also in its failure to hold key psychological levels. Recently, Bitcoin attempted to break through the $90,000 mark but failed to sustain it, eventually falling back to around $87,500. This repeated setback indicates that market confidence is wavering.

Ethereum (ETH) also shows a bleak picture, trading at $2,450 with a 24-hour drop of -9.31%. Solana (SOL) performs slightly better at $105.64, but the entire Altcoin market’s 16 main indices have all declined over the past 24 hours, with DeFi Select down 4%, Metaverse Index down over 3%, and only HASH and RAIN tokens gaining more than 6%.

Crypto Assets and Traditional Market Correlation Trajectory

In traditional markets, the US stock indices show relative resilience. The S&P 500 rose 0.64% to 6,878.49, the Nasdaq Composite increased 0.52% to 23,428.83 points, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.47% to 48,362.68 points. This performance contrasts sharply with the crypto downturn, indicating that institutional investors are adopting differentiated allocation strategies.

Upcoming economic data from the Federal Reserve will be a key focus. Most economists expect US Q3 GDP growth to be between 3.2% and 3.5% annualized, a slowdown from 3.8% in Q2 but still above the 2.6% average since the end of 2021. If actual data falls short of expectations, it could rekindle demand for Bitcoin; however, the critical question remains whether markets can break through the $90,000 psychological barrier.

Strong Rebound in Gold Futures and New Commodity Landscape

Gold futures rose 1.04%, currently trading at $4,516 per ounce. Silver futures also increased 1.66% to $69.70. The simultaneous rise of these precious metals reflects a renewed focus by global investors on physical assets. Unlike digital assets like Bitcoin, traditional safe havens such as gold benefit from their physical properties and long-standing recognition, especially during times of rising market risk.

The upward trend in gold futures indicates that, despite Bitcoin being long dubbed “digital gold,” in times of sharp market sentiment shifts, traditional gold remains the more trusted safe haven. This phenomenon serves as an important reminder for Bitcoin advocates: to truly become a safe haven in the digital age, Bitcoin still needs further market recognition and institutional backing.

Technical Analysis: Solana Breakout Test and Reversal Spring Signal

From a technical perspective, Solana (SOL) daily chart shows a classic market signal. The price recently broke out of a multi-week consolidation bottom and quickly rebounded, a pattern known as a “Wyckoff spring” in technical analysis. This typically indicates exhaustion of the selling force and could be a precursor to a trend reversal.

However, to confirm a genuine upward reversal, SOL needs to effectively break above the consolidation upper boundary. The current rebound, while signaling some positive momentum, has not yet reached confirmation levels. This echoes the overall market’s dilemma—although technical signs suggest a potential rebound, the overarching risk aversion mood continues to constrain upside potential.

DeFi Governance and Market Event Dynamics

At the protocol level, several major DeFi projects are conducting important governance votes. Yearn DAO is voting on whether to rotate Multisig wallet signers and approve the yETH recovery plan, which involves treasury yields, 10% income transfer, and lost claim recovery to restore user funds. GMX DAO is preparing a vote to deploy GMX on Solana, planning to allocate $400,000 USDC for liquidity initialization. Aave DAO’s voting focus is on reclaiming full ownership of brand assets from service providers like Aave Labs.

Aave (AAVE) tokens have declined 18% over the past week, significantly more than mainstream crypto assets, partly due to this governance dispute suppressing market sentiment. Even though founder Станислав Кулечов invested $12.6 million to buy AAVE tokens in support, the market is still digesting the uncertainty caused by this management turmoil.

ETF Flows and Institutional Positions

In the spot BTC ETF space, single-day net outflows reached $142 million, but cumulative net inflows remain high at $57.25 billion. In contrast, spot ETH ETFs saw $84.6 million in net inflows during the day, indicating relatively strong institutional interest in Ethereum. This divergence further confirms the market’s selective asset allocation attitude.

Crypto Listed Companies and Stock Market Performance

In crypto-related listed companies, Coinbase Global (COIN) closed at $247.90, up 1.13% but down 0.57% pre-market to $246.49; Galaxy Digital (GLXY) closed at $24.61, up 2.54% but down 0.49% pre-market; Core Scientific (CORZ) closed at $15.79, up 1.22% but down 0.16% pre-market; CleanSpark (CLSK) closed at $12.10, up 0.58% but down 0.91% pre-market. The pre-market declines suggest waning optimism in the crypto sector.

MicroStrategy (MSTR), a major Bitcoin holder, closed at $164.32, down 0.30%. As a Bitcoin price indicator, its movement also reflects cautious investor sentiment toward crypto assets.

Global Macro Environment and Market Outlook

In global equities, Japan’s Nikkei 225 index was essentially flat at 50,412.87 points, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index fell 0.11% to 25,774.14 points, the UK FTSE 100 was flat, and the Eurozone Stoxx 50 index was slightly subdued. In bonds, the US 10-year Treasury yield fell 2.6 basis points to 4.145%, further confirming market concerns about economic growth prospects.

In the currency markets, the Japanese Yen appreciated slightly against the US dollar, possibly related to speculation about potential intervention by the Bank of Japan to prevent further Yen depreciation.

Conclusion: Lessons from Gold Futures and the Pending Test for Bitcoin

This market correction marked by rising gold futures reaffirms a fundamental fact: during times of rapid shifts in global risk appetite, the “safe haven” attributes of Bitcoin and other crypto assets still require full market validation. Gold futures, with centuries of credibility, remain the preferred safe haven for investors in times of panic.

To truly break through the $90,000 psychological barrier, Bitcoin needs to wait for a reduction in global risk aversion. Instead of waiting for macroeconomic shifts, it may be more fruitful to seek positive signals from technical analysis and on-chain data. Currently, institutions like VanEck point out that large-scale miner capitulation is a historically contrarian signal, often indicating proximity to a local market bottom. This leaves a glimmer of hope for a rebound—though, for now, this hope must give way to the rising trend in gold futures.