#非农数据大超预期 Data release has loosened market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Although traders still bet on the Fed cutting rates for the first time in June, the probability of holding steady has risen to nearly 40%, up from about 25% before the data was released. Sarah House, senior economist at Wells Fargo, told First Financial Journal: “The labor market seems to be stabilizing rather than deteriorating rapidly. Today’s data shows that during Chair Powell’s tenure, the likelihood of the Fed cutting rates again is decreasing.” However, non-farm payrolls data cannot mask the overall sluggishness of employment indicators. Last week, ADP released data showing that in January, the private sector added only 22,000 jobs, indicating that the current job market remains weak, with significantly increased difficulty in job seeking.

In fact, unlike the booming non-farm payrolls in January, the annual employment benchmark revision further highlights the labor market’s weakness: starting from March 2025, the number of new jobs added will be 862,000 fewer than previously estimated. The data revision shows that in 2025, the U.S. economy will add only 181,000 jobs, far below the earlier estimate of 584,000. This figure is only a fraction of the 1.459 million jobs added in 2024 (the last full year of former President Biden’s term). Many Wall Street economists have expressed that President Trump’s aggressive trade and immigration policies continue to cast a shadow over the labor market and have warned against interpreting the January surge in employment as a substantive shift in the employment situation.

Trump dismissed the data revision, posting on social media: “We are once again the strongest country in the world, and therefore deserve the lowest interest rates to date.”

Since the second half of last year, affected by trade wars and immigration policies, the U.S. employment market has gradually cooled, with new jobs highly concentrated in a few industries, mainly healthcare, dining, and hospitality. Tariffs have driven up the prices of goods, hampered product sales, and caused businesses to doubt future market demand. Meanwhile, a significant decline in U.S. immigration has led to a shrinking labor supply pool, prompting some companies to experiment with artificial intelligence to perform tasks previously done by humans. Nela Richardson, chief economist at ADP, said: “Business hiring has clearly slowed, and the time it takes for job seekers to find work has increased.” The performance of the job market is the biggest concern for the Fed when considering whether to cut rates again in 2026.

Notably, White House economic advisor Kevin Hassett recently stated that, due to the dual effects of slowing labor growth and rising productivity, the number of new jobs in the U.S. may decrease in the coming months. “I believe that, against the backdrop of high GDP growth, a slight decrease in new jobs is a reasonable expectation… Even if future employment data remain below previous levels, there’s no need to panic, because population growth continues to slow while productivity is soaring, which is a unique economic situation.” This view provides context for ongoing internal discussions within the Federal Reserve, which could influence future policy decisions.

At the January policy meeting, Fed Chair Powell stated that the U.S. faces “a highly challenging and somewhat unusual situation,” with both labor supply and demand declining. This scenario could lead to slower-than-normal employment growth and keep the unemployment rate stable. Powell said this also makes the labor market “more difficult to interpret,” because whether the limited labor growth is due to supply constraints or demand will influence the Fed’s response. If limited labor supply is caused by potential workers being driven out, it could trigger hiring bottlenecks and wage increases, possibly signaling inflation and prompting the Fed to be more cautious about rate cuts. If slower employment growth is due to weak demand, the Fed should cut rates to stimulate economic growth and employment.

Like Hassett, Trump’s recent nominee for the next Fed Chair, Kevin Wirth, also stated that increased productivity helps curb inflation and could change the Fed’s policy outlook. Powell and most Fed policymakers have indicated that the recent strong productivity growth may continue, but they are also reluctant to base short-term monetary policy decisions solely on this assumption.