1. Yesterday, Bitcoin and Ethereum prices rose. The pickup code is for short positions to take profits. The principle is that when a coin is pulled up against the trend, if it encounters an upward trend and then drops, the decline can be quite large. Also, currently, bottom-fishing long positions and catching the head of the fish are mostly high-level traps. I will discuss this specific market analysis later. The first take-profit level of the pickup code was reminded yesterday, and a tweet was updated at the first take-profit level of 722. You can wait for the second take-profit, which is 0.68. The lowest point was 0.685, which is basically in position. It’s time to close all positions. Today's pickup code will be updated again as the market develops.

2. Recently, Bitcoin dropped to a low of $60,000, and many people are anxious. I want to ask if there is a clear trend in the maximum retracement after each bull market in Bitcoin’s history?
The retracement after the last few bull markets has been astonishing—using history as a guide:
In 2011, from the high to the low, it fell 94%.
In 2013, the maximum drop was 86%.
In 2017, it was 84%.
In 2021, the most recent was 77%.
It sounds like each bear market’s decline is getting smaller, which is very noteworthy. It indicates that the market’s resilience after large declines is gradually strengthening, which is an important signal, showing that market structure and participant psychology are changing.
Next, we will delve into why changes in market structure make Bitcoin perform more steadily.
In the early days, Bitcoin’s market was mainly played by geeks and high-risk enthusiasts. Now, listed companies, Wall Street ETF funds, and even sovereign states are including Bitcoin as part of their asset allocation. Especially with the emergence of ETFs, traditional institutions find it easier to enter the market, bringing in massive, long-term stable funds, making the market bottom more solid.
The pricing logic is also completely different from before. Previously, Bitcoin’s price was a barometer of everyone’s sentiment, supported by consensus and imagination. Now, the costs of mining, institutional accumulation, ETF holdings, etc., have become solid value supports. The market now resembles an aircraft carrier rather than a small raft, better able to withstand major external shocks.
In a bear market, the most difficult thing is the psychological loneliness—seeing friends who once shared the conviction start to doubt and deny, feeling like you are the only one holding on in the world. This psychological pressure is more difficult to endure than price fluctuations.
Those who truly make big money in Bitcoin investing rarely try to guess the top or bottom; instead, they understand market cycles and hold long-term with conviction. For example, those who entered during the last bear market in 2014 had to endure about two years before seeing hope in 2016. Without a deep understanding of cycles and firm belief, it’s impossible to hold on.
I still remember when Bitcoin was at 120,000 yuan, many people said they would go all-in if it dropped to 70,000. When ETH was at 4,500, they said they would go all-in if it dropped to 2,000. Now that it has actually reached those levels, would you go all-in? Think about why it is like this and how it differs from what you initially thought. Of course, it’s not time to go all-in yet. I will notify when it’s suitable to enter.
🌹🌹🌹🌹🌹🌹🌹🌹🌹🌹🌹🌹🌹🌹🌹🌹🌹🌹🌹🌹
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Historical performance is only counted from subscription tweets, all are prophetic:
Stop loss: ---------❌
Percentage increase: ------📈
Take profit: ---------👍🏻
Percentage decrease: ------📉
Early take profit: -----👌🏻
Performance statistics are based on spot plus futures calculations.
Positions: -------❗