Negotiations failed, and multiple countries have issued withdrawal and departure alerts intensively. The crypto market is dropping first! Ethereum shows three large daily bearish candles on the short-term chart!

Last night, the critical negotiations between the US and Iran in Geneva did not reach an agreement. The Oman mediators stated that the negotiations made "significant progress," but disagreements remain. The next step will extend the negotiations to technical consultations in Vienna next week. This kind of "progress without results" situation often triggers market volatility: because it neither provides a clear de-escalation conclusion nor rules out the tail risk of conflict escalation.
More sensitive is that starting today, many countries' diplomatic and consular systems have issued more "evacuation/departure alerts." Previously, many countries had evacuated diplomatic personnel and their families from the Middle East, advised citizens to leave or avoid traveling to Iran; today, China also officially advised citizens to avoid Iran and to evacuate personnel as soon as possible. The US has allowed non-emergency personnel and their families of its embassy in Italy to leave. This does not directly prove that "negotiations have failed and war is imminent," but ongoing negative news that remains unconfirmed will reinforce the market's perception that "the security situation could suddenly worsen"—and it is precisely this probability change that drives market trading.
Asset prices also reflect this clearly. Oil prices surged today, even though negotiations are still ongoing, risk premiums will still be maintained. During such a phase of declining risk appetite, cryptocurrencies are usually first to be sold off. On one hand, the crypto market itself has high leverage and low liquidity, making it prone to "cascade stop-loss/liquidation drops"; when macro uncertainty rises, funds tend to reduce holdings in highly volatile assets first.
Let's wait and see if there's an opportunity to short Ethereum again near 2000. #我在Gate广场过新年