History does not repeat, but cycles tend to follow similar rhythms!!

Looking back at Bitcoin's 15-year bull and bear cycles:
Bitcoin has fallen from over $120,000 to around $60,000, with a maximum drawdown of nearly 50%. If you only look at the numbers, this is a significant shakeout; but when viewed within the 15-year historical cycle, it actually appears more “restrained.”
Reviewing several key declines:
2011 saw a 94% drop, 2015 an 83% drop, 2018 an 84% drop, and 2022 a 77% drop.
Compared to these, this round’s retracement is noticeably milder.
But the issue isn’t about “how much it fell,” but whether the structure has changed.
Every major decline in the past was accompanied by some form of clearing: exchange crises, bursting of financing bubbles, interest rate hike cycles, and credit collapses. After clearing, there was a new wave of capital restructuring—from retail investors to speculative capital, then to institutions and ETFs.
What’s different this time is that ETF funds still exist, and institutions have not fully exited, but the global liquidity environment is tightening. In other words, this is more like a “macro-driven retracement,” rather than a sector-specific risk explosion.
A 50% decline usually falls into a gray area between mid-bull market retracements and major cycle tops in history. The true determinant of direction has never been sentiment, but liquidity and capital structure.
So the key question isn’t “will it fall again,” but—
Is this more like the consolidation in 2016, or the turning point in 2018? What’s your view?
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