The typical decline of U.S. stocks on the first day of conflict is 1% to 3%. Research from the International Monetary Fund estimates the average single-month stock market decline after geopolitical shocks to be about 1%. However, there is significant divergence within sectors; defense stocks may rise against the trend, and energy stocks may also follow oil prices higher. But the VIX index, which reflects market panic, will definitely spike sharply. Historically, within 48 hours of major Middle East conflicts breaking out, the VIX has experienced double-digit increases.