TC Energy Bolsters Growth Trajectory: Record Safety Performance Translates to 15 Flow Milestones and 26-Year Dividend Streak in 2025

TC Energy Corporation, a continental leader in North American energy infrastructure spanning Canada, the United States, and Mexico, delivered robust 2025 results underscored by exceptional operational achievements and financial resilience. The company’s strongest safety performance in five years catalyzed unprecedented operational records, positioning the organization to capitalize on surging demand across natural gas and power infrastructure—a strategic positioning reinforced by the Board’s decision to raise quarterly dividends by 3.2 percent for the 26th consecutive year.

The energy infrastructure operator navigated a period marked by geopolitical volatility and trade policy uncertainty while maintaining financial stability through a disciplined, low-risk business model. With 98 percent of comparable EBITDA protected by rate-regulated or long-term take-or-pay contracts, the company demonstrated its defensive positioning amid market turbulence.

Financial Performance Reflects Operational Excellence

TC Energy’s fourth quarter 2025 results showcased a pronounced turnaround in financial metrics. Comparable EBITDA reached CAD $3.0 billion in Q4, representing a 13 percent increase from the prior-year period, while comparable earnings expanded 15 percent year-over-year to CAD $2.2 billion on a segmented basis. For the full year, comparable EBITDA climbed 9 percent to CAD $11.0 billion compared to CAD $10.0 billion in 2024.

Comparable earnings per common share totaled CAD $0.98 in the fourth quarter, modestly down from CAD $1.05 in Q4 2024, but benefiting from improved asset availability and reliability across the portfolio. Full-year comparable earnings declined slightly to CAD $3.51 per share from CAD $3.73 in the prior year. However, the financial base demonstrates stability crucial for the company’s long-term value proposition.

The company placed CAD $8.3 billion of projects into service during 2025, executing 15 percent below approved budgets—a testament to project management discipline and cost control. This performance reinforces the credibility of management’s capital allocation framework.

Operational Excellence Drives Market Share Gains

A defining characteristic of 2025 was the unprecedented operational performance across TC Energy’s integrated pipeline network. The company recorded 15 delivery records throughout the year, reflecting both the strength of underlying market demand and the quality of asset execution.

Canadian Natural Gas Pipeline deliveries averaged 27.2 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in Q4, up 5 percent from the prior year, with an all-time record of 33.2 Bcf set on January 22, 2026. The NGTL System, a cornerstone asset, posted system receipts averaging 15.5 Bcf/d and achieved an all-time delivery milestone of 18.3 Bcf on the same date.

U.S. Natural Gas Pipelines demonstrated even more dramatic momentum, recording daily average flows of 29.6 Bcf/d—a 9.5 percent surge—culminating in an unprecedented 39.9 Bcf all-time delivery record on January 29, 2026. This surge was driven by converging demand vectors: data center power load expansion, accelerated coal-to-gas conversions, and rising LNG export requirements. Deliveries to liquefied natural gas facilities specifically jumped 21 percent year-over-year to average 3.9 Bcf/d, highlighting the structural shift toward cleaner energy exports.

Power generation facilities consumed 1.2 Bcf/d in Q4, up 11 percent, signaling the critical intersection of energy demand growth and infrastructure capacity constraints. Bruce Power, TC Energy’s nuclear asset, maintained 85.7 percent availability in the quarter despite a planned outage, with full-year availability reaching 91 percent and guidance suggesting low-90s performance in 2026.

Strategic Growth Blueprint for 2026 and Beyond

The company’s capital allocation strategy reflects confidence in sustained demand trajectory. TC Energy sanctioned CAD $600 million of in-corridor expansion projects in the fourth quarter, including CAD $500 million designated for NGTL System expansion facilities scheduled for 2028 in-service. These lower-risk, expansion-focused initiatives exemplify the disciplined approach to capital deployment.

Commercial engagement with customers has intensified, signaling a robust pipeline of future growth opportunities. A non-binding expansion project open season on the Columbia Gas Transmission system closed on January 9, 2026, attracting approximately 1.5 Bcf/d in total competitive bids for a proposed 0.5 Bcf/d expansion—triple oversubscription reflecting acute supply-demand imbalances in the Columbus area, particularly from data center demand. On February 9, 2026, TC Energy launched another capacity solicitation for its Crossroads Pipeline system, seeking up to 1.5 Bcf/d in expansion capacity to serve Northern Indiana, Illinois, Iowa, and South Dakota regions experiencing material power generation and data center development.

The Cedar Link project continues tracking ahead of schedule and below the CAD $1.2 billion board-approved budget. Recent project completions included the Virginia Radiator (VR) expansion on the Columbia system (in-service November 2025; US $500 million invested) and the Wisconsin Radiator (WR) project on the ANR system (in-service November 2025; US $700 million invested), both contributing incremental system flexibility amid rising power demand volatility.

Management projects deploying approximately CAD $4.0 billion of capital in 2026, continuing the disciplined cadence of the CAD $6.0-6.5 billion annual capital expenditure guidance through 2030. The targeted build multiple range of 5.0-7.0x—capital expenditure divided by comparable EBITDA—reflects management’s commitment to value-accretive deployment rather than growth-for-growth’s-sake capital allocation.

Dividend Growth Demonstrates Shareholder Commitment

TC Energy’s Board approved a quarterly common share dividend of CAD $0.8775 per share (CAD $3.51 annualized) effective for the quarter ending March 31, 2026—marking the 26th consecutive year of dividend expansion. This reflects management confidence in durable cash generation and structural tailwinds supporting the business model.

The dividend increase, combined with consistent project execution and strengthening financial positioning, reinforces TC Energy’s positioning as a quality infrastructure income vehicle. The company remains on track to achieve its long-term debt-to-EBITDA leverage target, preserving financial flexibility to capitalize on emerging opportunities while maintaining shareholder returns.

Market Tailwinds Position for Multi-Decade Growth

TC Energy’s outlook anticipates North American natural gas demand to expand 45 Bcf/d to approximately 170 Bcf/d between 2025 and 2035—a 36 percent increase driven by LNG export acceleration, power generation growth from electrification requirements, and enhanced reliability infrastructure from distributed grid modernization.

The company’s differentiated asset footprint—encompassing Canadian mainline systems, U.S. transmission networks, Mexico distribution infrastructure, and storage optimization—positions it uniquely to capture this demand migration. The 2025 results, with record safety performance translating to operational milestones and deepening commercial engagement, underscore management’s execution credibility and strategic alignment with secular energy market trends.

With CAD $6.0 billion of net annual capital expenditure deployment capacity through 2030 and indications of potentially surpassing this threshold in the latter part of the decade, TC Energy has established a multi-year growth runway supported by infrastructure secular tailwinds, shareholder-friendly financial discipline, and an embedded culture of operational excellence.