#比特币反弹 Since the beginning of 2026, Bitcoin has exhibited a three-phase trend of "high-level pullback - weak consolidation - strong rebound," with the specific trajectory as follows:

1. January high-level pullback phase: Influenced by factors such as the Federal Reserve pausing rate cuts, continuous outflows of U.S. spot ETF funds, and tightening global regulations, Bitcoin steadily declined from above $100,000 in early January, briefly falling below $60,000 in early February, hitting a new low for the year, nearly halving its all-time high, with first-quarter returns reaching the lowest in 12 years.
2. February weak consolidation phase: Price entered a wide-range oscillation between $60,000 and $68,000, with intense battles between bulls and bears. Frequent liquidations occurred in the futures market. During this period, the price repeatedly surged near $69,000 but faced resistance and retreated, failing to break through effectively. Market sentiment remained subdued, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index dropping to 19, indicating "Extreme Fear," and retail investors panicking and selling off.
3. March strong rebound phase: On March 4-5, Bitcoin experienced a breakthrough rally, consecutively surpassing key resistance levels at $68,000, $70,000, $72,000, and $73,000, breaking the downtrend channel since February 9. Daily candles showed large-volume bullish signals, and bullish sentiment significantly improved. Mainstream cryptocurrencies followed the rally, and crypto-related concept stocks also strengthened, with Cb's single-day increase exceeding 14.5%.
Deep Analysis of the Core Drivers of This Round of Market Movement
The strong rebound of Bitcoin is not accidental; it results from the resonance of multiple factors such as on-chain chip structure, technical supply patterns, policy expectations, and long-term narratives. At the same time, there are still significant negative pressures that cannot be ignored.
(1) Core Positive Drivers
1. On-chain chip structure continues to optimize, with whales and long-term holders increasing their holdings against the trend. According to Glassnode on-chain data, despite intense volatility in February, long-term holders (LTH) sold 87% less Bitcoin than before. Currently, only about 31,000 BTC are actively being sold, indicating strong reluctance among long-term holders to sell, with increasing lock-in of bottom chips. Meanwhile, addresses holding over 100,000 BTC have accumulated an additional 14,000 BTC. Major global exchanges have experienced net outflows of Bitcoin for seven consecutive days, totaling 13,500 BTC transferred out of exchanges into cold wallets for long-term storage, continuously shrinking circulating supply and providing a solid chip foundation for price rebounds.
2. Supply in key price ranges is thin, significantly reducing upward resistance. According to joint analysis by CoinDesk and Glassnode, the circulating supply of Bitcoin between $72,000 and $80,000 is extremely sparse, with only about 1% of circulating Bitcoin traded within this range. Historically, trading within this range has been very brief. After Trump’s victory in November 2024, Bitcoin’s price quickly jumped over this range. The decline in late January 2026 only briefly lingered within this zone, without forming a dense accumulation of trapped positions. This means that once Bitcoin stabilizes above $72,000, the selling pressure during the push toward $80,000 will be significantly lower than in other ranges, which is a key technical reason for the rapid breakthrough of multiple resistance levels during this rebound.
3. Favorable policy catalysts and improved regulatory expectations. Recently, signals of marginal improvement in global crypto regulation have emerged: former U.S. President and 2024 presidential candidate Trump publicly supports crypto regulation bills, explicitly endorsing the development of the U.S. crypto industry; Hong Kong’s stablecoin licensing has been officially implemented, and Asian compliant markets continue to advance; Singapore’s Web3 Summit was held from March 5-7, with market expectations of multiple industry-beneficial policies and collaborations, further boosting market sentiment.
4. The long-tail effect of the halving cycle supports, with long-term funds preemptively positioning in Bitcoin. The fourth halving of block rewards, completed in May 2024, continues to have a long-tail effect. Historical data shows that 18-24 months after halving is a critical phase for Bitcoin’s upward cycle, corresponding to industry compliance improvements and demand recovery. Coupled with market expectations of the Federal Reserve resuming rate cuts in the second half of 2026, some long-term institutional funds are beginning to position early, providing long-term narrative support for Bitcoin’s price.
(2) Still Need to Watch Out for Negative Pressures
1. Macroeconomic liquidity expectations remain pessimistic, and the March rate cut by the Fed largely fell flat. Currently, the market assigns an 86.5% probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged in March. The Fed paused its rate cuts since September 2025, maintaining the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%. The high-rate environment persists, with the dollar and U.S. bond yields remaining high, continuing to suppress valuations of high-risk assets like Bitcoin. The market is awaiting U.S. non-farm payroll and CPI data released in March for more clues on monetary policy shifts. Until key data is confirmed, overall funds remain cautious.
2. The global trend of tightening regulation remains unchanged, with compliance pressures ongoing. Although short-term regulatory expectations have improved, the overall trend of tightening crypto regulation worldwide has not changed: the EU’s Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) regulation will fully take effect on March 25, imposing strict licensing requirements on crypto service providers across the EU, significantly increasing compliance costs; the U.S. Department of Justice previously confiscated 127,000 BTC and plans to sell an additional 70,000 BTC seized from the Silk Road, creating potential selling pressure; domestic regulatory red lines remain clear—Bitcoin does not have the status of legal currency, and related trading activities are considered illegal financial activities, continuously constraining market funds.
3. Large token unlocks in March pose potential selling pressure. In March 2026, approximately $5.8-6 billion worth of tokens will unlock across the entire crypto market, involving major coins like WBT, SUI, ZRO, etc. Some project teams and early investors may sell part of their holdings, diverting liquidity and indirectly affecting Bitcoin’s capital inflow, so short-term selling pressure should be watched.
4. High leverage risks in the futures market persist, with intensified bull-bear battles. During this rebound, futures market battles remain fierce, with over $570 million in total liquidations in 24 hours, of which over 70% were short liquidations. Forced liquidations of high-leverage positions further amplified price volatility. Currently, the market’s long-short ratio remains at a neutral-high level of 1.64. If prices pull back later, concentrated liquidations of long positions could trigger a negative cycle of "decline - liquidation - increased selling pressure."
Technical Analysis and Market Outlook
(1) Core Technical Signals
1. Trend: Bitcoin’s daily chart has successfully broken out of the downtrend channel since February 9. On 6-hour and 4-hour charts, clear bullish trends are forming. The 5-day and 10-day moving averages on the daily chart have formed a golden cross, with short-term moving averages turning upward, indicating bulls dominate the market.
2. Key levels:
- Resistance levels: first at $75,000 (a key gamma magnet point in options, with over $2.3 billion in negative gamma positions), second at $80,000 (previous dense trading zone and psychological milestone);
- Support levels: first at $70,000 (an integer level and key breakout point), second at $68,000 (daily 20 MA and previous consolidation upper boundary), strong support at $65,000 (previous consolidation lower boundary and bullish line).
3. Indicators:
- MACD on the daily chart has formed a golden cross, indicating bearish momentum has waned and bullish momentum is increasing;
- RSI has rebounded to around 65, still below overbought levels, leaving room for further upside;
- The put/call volume ratio in options has sharply fallen from 1.89 at the end of February to 0.40, indicating market sentiment has shifted from extreme risk aversion to bullish positioning, with increased willingness to bet on upward movement.
(2) Three Market Scenarios
1. Optimistic (probability 35%): Bitcoin can hold above $73,000, with volume continuing to grow, quickly breaking through the $75,000 resistance, rapidly rising within the thin supply zone of $72,000-$80,000, aiming for a test of $80,000, triggering FOMO and attracting institutional funds.
2. Neutral (probability 50%): Bitcoin oscillates between $70,000 and $75,000, digesting previous profit-taking and scattered trapped positions above, waiting for U.S. non-farm payroll, CPI data, and the March Fed rate decision. After macro signals clarify, the market will choose direction, maintaining a bullish consolidation pattern without significant retracement.
3. Pessimistic (probability 15%): Due to macro data underperforming expectations, sudden regulatory negative news, and large-scale short positions, Bitcoin falls below the $70,000 key support, retesting the $68,000 MA support. If support fails, it could further decline to the previous consolidation zone at $65,000, returning to a weak consolidation pattern.
All content in this article is an objective market overview and industry analysis and does not constitute any investment advice!