[Hong Kong Stock Analysis] Hong Kong stocks rebounded, rising nearly 500 points. Analysis: This is a short-term rebound, and a trend reversal cannot be confirmed. Mainland economic growth targets are the slowest in 30 years, and the market has already anticipated this.

Hong Kong stocks fell for three consecutive days before following the US market’s rebound. The Hang Seng Index opened 334 points higher on Thursday, at 25,583 points, and briefly rose nearly 500 points in the early session. The China Tech Index also increased by over 1%. Independent market analyst Wong Yiu Chung believes that the short-term rebound in Hong Kong stocks is just that—a short-term bounce. “The market may have fallen enough in the short term and could rebound, but I don’t think we’re looking at a full-fledged bull run yet.”

Wong Yiu Chung stated in our video program that recent market conditions have been troubled by Middle East geopolitical risks. The strengthening US dollar and soaring oil prices are particularly sensitive to Asian markets. Rising oil prices will impact major importers like China and India. Compared to regional markets such as South Korea, which has experienced significant gains over the past year and carries higher leverage, the decline in Hong Kong and Chinese stocks has been relatively smaller.

The National People’s Congress opened on Thursday. Premier Li Qiang’s government work report mentioned an economic growth target of 4.5% to 5% for 2026. Wong Yiu Chung pointed out that although this growth target is the slowest in about 30 years, it aligns more closely with market expectations of around 4% actual growth, which investors find more acceptable. He also believes that lowering the growth target does not mean policy stimulus will weaken. Instead, he expects continued efforts to boost consumption-related policies, with a focus on overseas markets, such as the robotics industry.

Wong Yiu Chung said that the market has already partially priced in expectations of slower economic growth in mainland China. In the short term, Hong Kong stocks may experience a technical rebound. However, the situation in the Middle East remains uncertain, and news during the Two Sessions is unlikely to significantly stimulate the market. Going forward, attention should be paid to the earnings of large tech stocks. He suggests that tech stocks like Tencent (00700), Alibaba (09988), and Xiaomi (01810) could consider technical rebound strategies, focusing on whether earnings reports will lead to institutional re-evaluation. Additionally, investors should keep an eye on AI large model stocks like MiniMax (00100), which have already announced earnings.

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