#加密市场上涨 #美伊局势影响 The oil tankers blocking the Strait of Hormuz sent a shock through Wall Street traders.

On Monday’s open, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury shot up like a rocket, jumping 10 basis points in one go to 4.03%. This was the biggest single-day increase since October last year. The bond market folks are always the most sensitive—they’re not smelling gunpowder, but the burnt smell of inflation reigniting.
Oil prices surged over 6% in response, and expectations for rate cuts were pushed back by three months. Traders are now betting: seeing the first rate cut in September would be good, but a third one in 2026? Don’t count on it.
Yellen spoke plainly at the shipping conference: the Federal Reserve is now “more inclined to hold steady.” Translated, that means—there’s little policy space left, and it needs to be used sparingly.
Inflation is still hovering around 3%, a percentage point above the 2% target. Just tariffs from the Trump era contributed about 0.5% of that. What worries the Fed even more is market expectations: if the market truly believes “3% is the new normal,” then things could get complicated.
JPMorgan’s Dimon used an analogy, saying inflation is like a skunk at a party—it doesn’t cause a scene right away, but the smell drifts in, and everyone will eventually have to leave. Short-term conflicts may have limited impact on oil prices, but no one knows how long this fight will last.
The stock market’s reaction is quite interesting. The S&P 500 dipped over 1% intraday but managed to recover by close. Airline stocks turned downward, while energy and defense sectors held steady. Funds are reordering—growth stocks are too sensitive to interest rates; higher rates can shrink their valuations in just one day.
Bitcoin, on the other hand, didn’t fall but rose, jumping back to $69,000 within a day. Gold also touched above $5,300. The safe-haven logic remains—hard assets are still the way to go. But seasoned crypto players know that the 2022 bear market was a warning—when liquidity tightens, all beliefs get discounted. Now that rate cut expectations are fading, how long risk appetite can hold in the coming months is anyone’s guess.
Not everyone is pessimistic. Morgan Stanley’s Wilson believes that as long as oil prices stay under control, the conflict itself might not overturn the fundamentals of the U.S. stock market. JPMorgan’s trading desk even sees the pullback as a buying opportunity.
Some are more optimistic: if Iran were to install a pro-Western government and ramp up oil output, that would be a pleasant surprise.
Ultimately, everyone is watching the same variable: how long will the Strait of Hormuz be blocked?
A few days would just be a pulse in oil prices—something to endure.
A few weeks, and it’s a bigger problem—summer gasoline demand, sticky core inflation, tariff aftereffects, all stacking up, enough to force the Fed to keep tightening until next year.
For the crypto market, this means that beyond on-chain data, geopolitical candlestick patterns also need attention. Bitcoin’s rise today is because money is seeking a safe haven. But if Yellen and Dimon are right—that inflation isn’t going away easily, and rates won’t fall quickly—then this risk-averse rally might just be a longer, tougher “midterm break.”