JPMorgan "reveals" the actual situation at the Strait of Hormuz: an average of only 8 ships pass through daily, a 94% drop in traffic!

As the conflict between the US and Iran intensifies, the number of oil tankers and cargo ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz has sharply decreased. This is the world’s most critical “oil choke point.” According to JPMorgan, commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has “almost come to a complete halt.”

Based on analysis from the bank’s Energy and Commodities division, on Tuesday— the day Iran announced the closure of the Strait— eight ships were tracked passing through this narrow waterway. Normally, about 138 ships pass through the strait daily. Traffic has plummeted by 94%.

Moreover, for the rest of this week, the situation remains the same, with only a few oil tankers and cargo ships attempting to pass through. JPMorgan tracked seven ships navigating the narrow waterway on Wednesday and ten on Thursday. Analysis shows that since the escalation of the US-Iran conflict, an average of about eight ships have transited the route daily.

The Strait of Hormuz is a vital chokepoint for oil and other energy products, with one-fifth of the world’s energy supplies passing through it. The halt in tanker transportation has worsened the energy and global shipping crises, pushed up oil prices, and there is currently no sign of an agreement to end this war that is disrupting financial markets.

JPMorgan analysts state that commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains “almost nonexistent, mainly limited to Iranian ships,” with the current number of ships passing through about 6% of the historical average.

According to global trade data analysis firm Kpler, approximately 411 oil tankers are currently stranded in the Persian Gulf. This number is not unusual in itself, as ships often wait at ports in the region to load or unload cargo. However, oil analyst Matt Smith from Kpler notes that amid the current conflict, the number of empty ships is decreasing while the number of fully loaded oil tankers is rising.

Smith also added that in the weeks before the attacks, activity in the Gulf region was high, and Iran seemed to anticipate military action by increasing crude oil exports. Data shows that during the week of February 16, Iran’s crude oil exports reached 26.5 million barrels, compared to its usual weekly exports of about 10 to 12 million barrels.

Finally, JPMorgan analysts also stated that since crude oil cannot be transported through the strait, producers have shifted storage to ships and other facilities. Since late February, crude oil inventories have accumulated to about 76 million barrels, with roughly 46 million barrels stored on tankers, 22 million barrels in refineries, and 8 million barrels in commercial storage facilities.

Analysts further noted that most of the stockpiles seem to be concentrated in Saudi Arabia. If storage capacity is exhausted, it could lead to production disruptions, putting greater pressure on energy markets and U.S. gas stations. International oil prices surged this week, with WTI and Brent posting their largest weekly gains since records began in 1983 and 1991, respectively.

U.S. President Trump has pledged to escort oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz. This week, he instructed the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) to provide political risk insurance and guarantees at very reasonable prices to ensure the financial security of all maritime trade, especially energy trade through the Gulf. He emphasized, “No matter what, the U.S. will ensure the free flow of energy to the world.”

However, this insurance plan has faced criticism from analysts, who believe it may be unrealistic in the short term and is far from sufficient.

(Source: Cailian Press)