JPMorgan "reveals" the actual situation at the Strait of Hormuz: an average of only 8 ships pass through daily, a sharp 94% decrease in traffic!

Cailian Press, March 7 (Editor: Huang Junzhi) As the conflict between the U.S. and Iran intensifies, the number of oil tankers and cargo ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz has sharply decreased, which is the world’s most critical “oil gateway.” According to JPMorgan Chase, commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has “almost come to a complete halt.”

Based on analysis from the bank’s Energy and Commodities division, on Tuesday— the day Iran announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz— eight ships were tracked passing through this narrow waterway. Normally, about 138 ships pass through the strait daily. The flow has plummeted by 94%.

Moreover, for the rest of this week, the situation remains the same, with only a few oil tankers and cargo ships attempting to pass through the strait. It is reported that JPMorgan Chase tracked seven ships navigating this narrow waterway on Wednesday, and ten ships on Thursday. Analysis shows that since the escalation of the U.S.-Iran conflict, an average of about eight ships pass through the route daily.

The Strait of Hormuz is a vital chokepoint for oil and other energy products, with one-fifth of the world’s energy supplies passing through here. The halt in oil tanker transportation has worsened the energy and global shipping crisis, pushed up oil prices, and there is currently no agreement in sight to end this war that disrupts financial markets.

JPMorgan analysts state that commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains “almost nonexistent, with activity mainly limited to Iranian ships,” and the current number of ships passing through the strait is about 6% of the historical average.

According to global trade data analysis firm Kpler, approximately 411 oil tankers are currently stranded in the Persian Gulf. This number itself is not unusual, as ships often wait at ports in the region to load or unload cargo. However, oil analyst Matt Smith from the firm notes that amid the current conflict, the number of empty ships is decreasing while the number of fully loaded oil tankers is increasing.

Smith also added that in the weeks before the attacks, activity in the Gulf region was frequent, and Iran seemed to anticipate military action by increasing crude oil exports. Data shows that during the week of February 16, Iran’s crude oil exports reached 26.5 million barrels, whereas the country’s usual weekly crude exports are about 10 to 12 million barrels.

Finally, JPMorgan analysts also stated that since crude oil cannot be transported through the strait, producers have shifted storage to ships and other facilities. Statistics show that since the end of February, crude oil inventories have accumulated to about 76 million barrels, with approximately 46 million barrels stored on tankers, 22 million barrels in refineries, and 8 million barrels in commercial storage facilities.

Analysts further added that most of the inventory backlog appears to be concentrated in Saudi Arabia. If storage capacity is exhausted, it could lead to production disruptions, putting greater pressure on energy markets and U.S. gas stations. International oil prices surged this week, with WTI and Brent crude experiencing their largest weekly gains since records began in 1983 and 1991, respectively.

U.S. President Trump has pledged to escort oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz. This week, he instructed the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) to provide political risk insurance and guarantees at very reasonable prices to ensure the financial security of all maritime trade, especially energy trade through the Gulf. He emphasized, “No matter what, the United States will ensure the free flow of energy to the world.”

However, this insurance plan has faced criticism from analysts, who believe it may be unrealistic at least in the short term and is far from sufficient.