【Analysis of 9618 Performance】JD.com’s Q4 Adjusted Profit Declines but Still Beats Expectations – A Clear Look at Broker Comments (With Target Price and Rating Table)

SocialAnxietyStaker · 2026-03-07T10:02:19+00:00

JD.com's fourth quarter faced increased competition from food delivery services and reduced government subsidies, resulting in a 90% year-over-year decline in net profit after adjustments, though the decline was smaller than expected. Several brokerages have adjusted their target prices, with Nomura maintaining a "Buy" rating, while Morgan Stanley downgraded to "Underweight." JD.com's new business segments continue to incur losses, and it is expected that future losses will not decrease.

SocialAnxietyStaker

2026-03-07 10:02:19

Abstract generation in progress

JD.com (09618)
(US: JD) Facing intensified competition from food delivery, reduced government subsidies, and soft domestic consumption in Q4, adjusted net profit fell 90% year-on-year, but the decline was less than expected. According to comprehensive brokerage analysis, the market had previously lowered JD’s quarterly earnings expectations and is focusing on the high base effect in the first half of this year, as well as continued high losses in new businesses.

Major Banks	Target Price (USD)	Rating
Goldman Sachs	49	Buy
UBS	48	Buy
CICC	41 → 33	Outperform
Bernstein	38 → 34	Market Outperform
Deutsche Bank	38 → 36	Buy
Nomura	37	Buy
Citibank	34 → 35	Buy
Macquarie	28 → 25	Neutral
Morgan Stanley	24 → 22	Reduce

Nomura maintains a Buy rating on JD.com with a target price of $37. Nomura believes that JD’s profit decline last quarter was mainly due to investments in new businesses. In terms of business segments, JD Retail’s revenue and profit margins both exceeded market expectations, and JD Logistics’ revenue grew 22%, far surpassing market forecasts. However, the combined losses of new businesses including JD Instant E-commerce, International E-commerce, and JD Plus amounted to RMB 14.8 billion, narrowing 6% quarter-on-quarter but still worse than the market’s expected loss of RMB 13.7 billion.

Morgan Stanley maintains a Reduce rating on JD, lowering the target price from $24 to $22. The report states that JD’s worst period has not yet passed, with revenue and profit base in the first half being high, and losses from new investments unlikely to narrow. Morgan Stanley expects JD Retail’s revenue in the first quarter to remain flat, with further declines in operating profit margins, and has lowered its profit forecast for 2026 by 3% due to rising losses from new businesses.

CICC has cut JD’s target price by 19.5% to $33, maintaining an “Outperform” rating. CICC expects JD Retail’s operating profit margin to remain stable this year, with food delivery continuing to reduce losses. CICC states that JD management expects total investment in food delivery to be lower in 2026 than in 2025, and that investments in JD Plus and international expansion may increase within controllable limits. The bank forecasts that losses from new businesses will reach RMB 44.4 billion in 2026, with the group’s overall adjusted net profit margin at 2.4%.

Financial Hot Talk

Middle East conflict threatens oil supply. Will oil prices break $100? Could this impact the global economy?

View Original

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.