Resilience of External Demand and Industrial Upgrading Resonance: China's Imports and Exports Surpass Expectations

On March 10th, the General Administration of Customs released import and export data for January and February: in USD terms, China’s exports (USD 656.58 billion) surged by 21.8% year-on-year, and imports (USD 442.96 billion) grew by 19.8% year-on-year, far exceeding market expectations of 7.2% and 7.0%; February’s single-month export growth was as high as 39.6% year-on-year. The trade surplus expanded to USD 213.62 billion, setting a record for the same period in history. The growth rate of imports and exports has returned to double digits, marking a strong start for foreign trade.

Strong net exports are expected to continue providing key support for GDP growth in Q1 2026. Under the guidance of a 4.5%-5% economic growth target, sustained outperformance of net exports can not only effectively offset the slightly sluggish domestic demand recovery but also lay a foundation for a strong start to the year’s economy. The main drivers of export growth are no longer purely base effects; instead, they reflect substantial improvement in external demand. Even after excluding the offsetting effects of the Spring Festival, seasonally adjusted month-on-month export momentum remains significantly stronger than seasonal patterns.

This round of export growth continues last year’s notable structural upgrade characteristics: electromechanical and high-tech products remain the core drivers, with export growth rates for integrated circuits, automobiles, and ships reaching 72.6%, 67.1%, and 52.8%, respectively. Meanwhile, labor-intensive products also saw a clear rebound under low base effects and Spring Festival influences (clothing, bags, etc., growing 10%-18%), but their share of exports continues to decline, highlighting a shift in export focus toward technology-intensive and capital-intensive products. China’s manufacturing, with its complete supply chain system and technological accumulation, has significantly enhanced its irreplaceability in the global arena, rapidly becoming an indispensable key link in the global industrial chain.

In terms of countries, although exports to the U.S. are still declining, the decline has significantly narrowed compared to December 2025 (-30.6%). Meanwhile, exports to ASEAN (+29.4%), Africa (+49.9%), and the European Union (+27.8%) maintained double-digit growth, collectively contributing about 10 percentage points to export growth. The effectiveness of the diversification strategy in export markets is evident.