Anxiety Under the $600 Billion Big Bet: Despite Surge in Major Tech Companies' AI Spending, NVIDIA(NVDA.US) Stock Price No Longer Moves in Tandem

Large technology companies continue to increase their spending plans for artificial intelligence infrastructure, but as one of the biggest beneficiaries of this massive investment, Nvidia (NVDA.US) has seen its stock price remain largely stagnant for months. Since the beginning of Q4 last year, the stock has gained less than 1%, despite reaching an all-time high in late October, its overall trend remains mostly range-bound. Additionally, the stock’s performance in early 2026 has only slightly outperformed the S&P 500, and compared to Nvidia’s nearly 40% gain in 2025 after two consecutive years of triple-digit percentage growth, its growth rate has slowed.

Even with significant increases in capital expenditures by companies like Meta Platforms (META.US), Alphabet (GOOGL.US), Microsoft (MSFT.US), and Amazon (AMZN.US)—expected to exceed $600 billion by 2026—investors remain concerned about the returns on these investments, which has not significantly boosted the stock price.

JoAnne Feeney of Advisors Capital Management said, “People may be increasingly worried that the ultimate returns from AI will not keep pace with the announced capital expenditures.” She added that investing more now could accelerate market saturation, prompting earlier pauses in investment and giving new computing technologies more time to be absorbed.

The cyclical nature of the chip industry has been reflected in Nvidia’s valuation, which has compressed as revenue growth expectations slow over the coming years. Data shows that Nvidia’s sales are expected to grow 58% this year and 28% in 2027.

Currently, Nvidia’s stock trades at about 24 times expected earnings, roughly in line with the Nasdaq 100 index and slightly above the S&P 500. Although this P/E ratio is well below the five-year average of 38, investors do not see it as a bargain.

Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, a strategist at UBS, and her team noted that as capital expenditure growth slows, valuations for infrastructure providers like Nvidia could decline. In a report dated February 10, they wrote, “The slowdown in capital expenditure growth may improve investor sentiment towards spenders, but for some companies at the support layer, this could be a negative factor.”

The next catalyst for Nvidia’s stock price is its upcoming earnings report, scheduled after the US market closes on February 25. Investors will focus on Nvidia’s guidance and chip demand, which has accounted for a significant portion of spending by hyperscale data center operators in recent years.

Shelby McFaddin, an investment analyst at Motley Fool Asset Management, said, “Ultimately, it depends on valuation and the company’s current financial health. Investors might want to wait and see how Nvidia responds before deciding whether to reward or penalize the stock.”

Since several tech giants announced their massive spending plans, Wall Street analysts’ forecasts for Nvidia’s 2026 revenue and earnings have remained almost unchanged. Of course, analysts may be waiting for Nvidia’s official updates before adjusting their models.

Jim Thorne, chief market strategist at Wellington-Altus, said that it’s natural for stocks like Nvidia to consolidate after a significant rally, but market sentiment can change quickly. Thorne stated, “It’s psychology. Suddenly, everyone believes in the story, and the stock price skyrockets.”