[U.S. Stock Market Open] Iran Strait hits cargo ship, Japan and others to release oil reserves, oil prices rise 2% (updating)

Iranian media reports that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran issued a statement claiming that the Mayuree Naree was attacked after “ignoring warnings from the IRGC Navy.” According to shipping website marinetraffic, the Mayuree Naree is currently in the Strait of Hormuz.

The Fars News Agency quoted a military spokesperson saying: “The policy of proportional retaliation has ended; from now on, our policy will be continuous strikes. No oil will be allowed to pass through the Strait of Hormuz to benefit the United States, Zionist regimes, and their partners.”

However, countries like Japan will release oil reserves.

International oil prices rose about 2%, with NYMEX crude up 1.7% at $84.89 per barrel, and Brent crude up 2% at $89.6.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 221 points to 47,484, the S&P 500 rose 0.1% to 6,787, and the Nasdaq increased 0.4% to 22,782.

U.S. February inflation data met expectations, with overall CPI year-over-year at 2.4%, up 0.1 percentage points month-over-month to 0.3%, core CPI year-over-year at 2.5%, with a monthly increase of 0.2%, down 0.1 percentage points. Notably, this does not yet reflect the impact of the Middle East war causing international oil prices to surge.

Hong Kong stocks and ADR markets are continuously updating. For details, see: Next page

▼Click image to enlarge

Market Trends:

【21:30】Dow opens down 22 points at 47,683; Nasdaq up 0.3% at 22,765; S&P up 7 points at 6,788.

【19:04】Dow futures up 133 points; Nasdaq futures up 0.2%; S&P futures up 16 points.

【01:50】Dow futures up 121 points at 47,866; S&P futures up 18 points at 6,805; Nasdaq futures up 58 points or 0.2% at 25,041.

【12:47】【Iran Crisis】Oil prices rise; Federal Reserve stance shifts hawkish? US banks: market may be misjudging the situation; large rate cuts still possible.

【10:48】【Iran Crisis】EIA: Brent crude will stay above $95 for the next two months; expected to fall back to around $70 by year-end.

【09:53】NVIDIA partners with competitors of OpenAI, providing 1 gigawatt Vera Rubin chips to Thinking Machines.

【08:59】【Fed Chair】Senator Thom Tillis meets with Waller, reiterates opposition to Powell nomination before DOJ investigation ends.

【08:31】【Iran Crisis】International Energy Agency reportedly proposes releasing over 180 million barrels of oil reserves; oil prices turn from rising to falling.

【07:45】【AI + Defense】Anthropic states its AI tools are blacklisted, potentially costing the company billions.

【07:25】【AI + ORCL】Oracle reports better-than-expected earnings, surges 8% after hours.

【06:26】【Iran Crisis】Iran plans to lay mines in the Strait of Hormuz; thousands of mines in stock. Trump: will face unprecedented military consequences (updating).

$1 and below for March 10 US stock market overview====

Tuesday: White House: US did not escort oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz; Dow down 34 points; oil prices narrow losses

Market focuses on latest developments in Middle East, oil prices remain soft, Dow turns lower. On Tuesday, US Energy Secretary Chris Wright posted on social media that the US Navy successfully escorted an oil tanker through the Strait of Hormuz, but the post was soon deleted. White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt said the US did not escort ships.

See US stock close:

▼Click image to enlarge

+10

+9

Iranian IRGC responds: the so-called US military escort is a complete lie; any actions by the US and allies will be blocked within Iran’s missile and drone range.

Market hopes for an end to US-Iran conflict; NYMEX crude closes at $83.45, down 11.94%; Brent crude drops 11.28%, at $87.8.

The Dow once rose 479 points but closed down 34, at 47,706; S&P fell 0.21%; Nasdaq barely up 0.01%; Chinese concept stocks, represented by the Golden Dragon Index, rose 1.96%.

US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said Tuesday was the most intense day of military actions against Iran, with the most fighters and bombers deployed. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley said the US is striking Iranian missile and drone vessels.

Austin described it as a targeted, precise strike, not a prolonged “nation-building” campaign.

UAE oil refinery halted operations after drone attacks. Seven countries’ energy ministers (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, UK, US) held a meeting Tuesday to discuss releasing oil reserves. CNBC sources say the US considers releasing 300-400 million barrels of oil jointly.

Amazon is returning to the bond market; Bloomberg reports the company is issuing up to 11 tranches, with maturities from 2 to 50 years. The longest tranche, maturing in 2076, is initially priced about 1.55 percentage points above US Treasuries.

The US dollar index fell 0.3% to 98.93; US 10-year Treasury yields steadied at 4.159%. Gold rebounded 1.9% to $5,206 per ounce; silver rose 2.5% to $86.63.

Focus stocks: Memory stocks rebound; Micron (MU) up 3.5%, back above $400; SanDisk (SNDK) up 5%.

Oracle (ORCL) will report earnings after market close.

JH Henderson Global Multi-Asset Team head Adam Hetts and portfolio manager Oliver Blackbourn say that supply disruptions, rising oil and natural gas prices, and lack of clear cooling pathways are increasing inflation risks and market volatility. If conflict persists, economic pressure could deepen; but US political considerations may quickly resolve the situation as a “victory” or rapid end, leaving asset outlook uncertain.

Hong Kong stocks and ADR markets are continuously updating. For details, see: Next page

▼Click image to enlarge

Market Trends:

【21:30】Memory stocks rebound; Micron up 2%; Dow up 101 points; Nasdaq up 0.3%; oil prices retreat 8%.

【18:00】Dow futures up 101 points; Nasdaq futures up 0.3%; oil prices retreat 7%; Oracle reports earnings after hours.

【12:43】Dow futures down 183 points at 47,586; S&P futures down 24 points at 6,777; Nasdaq futures down 84 points or 0.3% at 24,906.

【12:09】【Apple】Apple reduces reliance on China; iPhone production in India now accounts for 25%.

【11:00】【AI + Defense】Anthropic sues US Department of Defense, demands removal from blacklist.

【10:31】【Iran Crisis】Trump says war will end soon; gold stabilizes and rebounds.

【08:28】【Iran Crisis】Dozens of oil tankers have reached the strait attempting to break through; Iran issues further warnings; Trump at press conference: war with Iran will end soon but no timeline promised (updating).

【08:26】【AI + NVIDIA】NVIDIA reportedly plans to launch open-source AI platform “NemoClaw.”

【08:00】【Apple】Apple reportedly delays smart home display device launch to wait for new Siri.

$1 and below for March 9 US stock market overview====

Monday: Trump: War nearly over; oil prices plunge; Dow surges 239 points

US President Trump in an interview said the war is nearly over, describing it as very complete; Iran has no navy, no communications, no air force; their missiles are down to a few scattered ones. Their drones are being destroyed everywhere, including drone manufacturing plants.

See US stock close:

▼Click image to enlarge

+10

+9

“Look at them, they have nothing left. In military terms, there’s nothing remaining,” Trump said. “The US can do many things in the Strait of Hormuz,” threatening Iran with consequences if they obstruct the waterway. “They’ve shot all they can shoot; they’d better not play any tricks, or it will be their end… If they do anything bad, it will be Iran’s end. You will never hear that name again.” Trump also said the strait is currently open, claiming ships are entering, but he is still “considering taking control.”

That same afternoon, the US Department of Defense posted on X (formerly Twitter): “We are just getting started” and “No mercy.”

Following the statements, oil prices plummeted, and US stocks rebounded. Brent crude fell 1.5% to $91.2; NYMEX crude dropped 3.4% to $88.

The Dow initially surged 886 points to a high of 47,615 but closed up only 239 points at 47,740; S&P down 0.8%; Nasdaq up 1.4%, closing at 22,695.

Brent crude initially surged nearly 30%, approaching $120 per barrel. G7 finance ministers held an emergency meeting to discuss coordinated release of strategic petroleum reserves via IEA to counter the spike after Gulf tensions.

French Finance Minister Roland Lescure said the G7 has not yet decided on releasing emergency oil reserves after the US-Israel conflict.

In Brussels, Lescure told reporters, “Our consensus is to use all necessary means to stabilize the market, including possible release of reserves.” He added that governments are closely monitoring the situation, with no supply issues so far.

Japan’s Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said, “The IEA calls on countries to coordinate releasing oil reserves. Given the current situation, the G7 agrees to continue closely monitoring energy markets and take necessary measures, including releasing reserves.” He also said that OECD, World Bank, and IMF officials participated in the meeting. The G7 will soon hold a ministerial meeting to discuss further steps.

As of 2022 data, IEA member countries’ emergency oil reserves under OECD control are estimated at over 1.2 billion barrels, mostly crude oil. According to IEA rules, all members must maintain emergency reserves equivalent to at least 90 days of net imports, sufficient to support at least three months of normal consumption.

Market stabilizes; US dollar index down 0.1% at 98.877; US 10-year Treasury yields steady at 4.107%. Gold prices narrowed decline to 0.6%, at $5,138; silver rose 2.5% to $86.63.

US military continues to demonstrate strength. According to BBC, US B-52 and B-1 heavy bombers are stationed at RAF Fairford, with three B-52s landing in one day—the first time B-52s have appeared in the UK since the conflict began.

B-52s are typical “forward-deployed” heavy bombers, signaling large-scale air campaigns or imminent escalation. With their large payload capacity, once enemy air defenses are weakened, they can deliver massive conventional ground-attack munitions to destroy infrastructure, industrial targets, or large ground forces.

Additionally, US stock markets have entered daylight saving time, opening one hour earlier at 9:30 PM Hong Kong time.

Swiss bank UBS notes that the oil market has entered a panic state, with prices soaring into triple digits, mainly driven by market sentiment, as the conflict itself has not seen any substantial changes. So far, supply disruptions are mainly due to cautious ships avoiding the Strait of Hormuz, causing trade blockages, not military blockades. However, this week and beyond, Middle Eastern oil supply could face up to 75% shutdown.

The bank says it will continue to monitor the situation closely. No significant damage to energy infrastructure has been observed; Iran’s military strength appears to be weakening. A solution involving safeguarding shipping and facilitating trade around the Strait of Hormuz remains feasible. Given the fog of war, they reaffirm a neutral stance on oil and natural gas, with a basic expectation that energy prices will peak at current or slightly higher levels.

Hong Kong stocks and ADR markets are continuously updating. For details, see: Next page

▼Click image to enlarge

+3

+2

Market Trends:

【18:20】US stocks rebound; Micron up 2%; Dow up 101 points; Nasdaq up 0.3%; oil prices surge over 10%, breaking $100.

【12:07】Dow futures down 1,006 points at 46,511; S&P futures down 130 points at 6,613; Nasdaq futures down 542 points or 2.2% at 24,127.

【12:07】【Iran Crisis】Iran conflict impacts financial markets; senior strategist Yardeni: US stocks may crash by end of year with a 35% probability.

【11:15】【Tencent】Reportedly planning to acquire Warner Bros. via Paramount, investing hundreds of millions.

【10:33】【Iran Crisis】Oil surges past $100, NYMEX crude up 30%, with major Middle Eastern producers cutting output.

【10:20】【Iran Crisis】Oil prices spike, dragging down Asia-Pacific markets; Japan and Korea down over 7%; South Korea considers implementing oil price caps.

【09:56】【Iran Crisis】JPMorgan estimates Middle Eastern oil capacity may decrease by 4 million barrels daily by next weekend.

【09:50】【Iran Crisis】Schroders’ Tedder: Oil may hit $100; “I won’t reduce energy stocks in next 2-3 years.”

【08:17】【Iran Crisis】Gold drops over 2%, testing $5,000; oil surge intensifies inflation fears.

【07:30】【Iran Crisis】Black Monday begins; oil up 20%, approaching $111; Trump: low cost; Dow futures plunge 1,112 points (updating).

【07:30】【Global Outlook】Focus on Middle East conflict and US inflation data; US markets open one hour early at 9:30 PM HK time.

【07:30】Concerns over oil supply disruptions and worse-than-expected US jobs data caused last week’s sharp decline; Dow once fell 945 points to 47,009; VIX spiked 21.6% to 28.88; Dow closed down 453 points, S&P down 1.33%, Nasdaq down 1.59%.

See US stock close:

▼Click image to enlarge

+10

+9

Last week’s US market activity, details at: 【US Stock Close】 Iran fires missiles at “Lincoln”; Brent hits $92; weak jobs report; Dow down 453; Nasdaq down 1.6%