[U.S. Stock Market Open] Iran Strait hits cargo ship, Japan and others to release oil reserves, oil prices rise 2% (updating)

Iranian media reports that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps issued a statement claiming that the Mayuree Naree was attacked after “ignoring warnings from the IRGC Navy.” According to shipping website marinetraffic, the Mayuree Naree is currently in the Strait of Hormuz.

The Fars News Agency quoted a military spokesperson as saying: “The policy of proportional retaliation has ended; from now on, our policy will be continuous strikes. No oil will be allowed to pass through the Strait of Hormuz to benefit the United States, the Zionist regime, and their partners.”

However, Japan and other countries will release oil reserves.

International oil prices rose about 2%, with NY crude up 1.7% at $84.89 per barrel, and Brent crude up 2% at $89.6.

The Dow fell 221 points to 47,484, the S&P 500 rose 0.1% to 6,787, and the Nasdaq increased 0.4% to 22,782.

U.S. February inflation data met expectations, with overall CPI year-over-year at 2.4%, up 0.1 percentage points month-over-month to 0.3%, core CPI unchanged at 2.5% annually, but down 0.1 percentage points to 0.2% monthly. Notably, this does not yet reflect the impact of the Middle East war causing international oil prices to surge.

Hong Kong stocks and ADR markets are continuously updating. For details, see: Next page

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Market Trends:

【21:30】Dow opens down 22 points at 47,683; Nasdaq up 0.3% at 22,765; S&P up 7 points at 6,788.

【19:04】Dow futures up 133 points; Nasdaq futures up 0.2%; S&P futures up 16 points.

【01:50】Dow futures up 121 points at 47,866; S&P futures up 18 points; Nasdaq futures up 58 points or 0.2% at 25,041.

【12:47】【Iran Crisis】Oil prices rise; Fed stance shifts hawkish? US banks warn market may be misjudging the situation; large rate cuts possible.

【10:48】【Iran Crisis】EIA: Brent crude will stay above $95 for the next two months, expected to fall back to about $70 by year-end.

【09:53】NVIDIA｜Nvidia partners with competitors of OpenAI, providing 1 gigawatt Vera Rubin chips to Thinking Machines.

【08:59】【Fed Chair】Senator Thom Tillis meets with Waller, reiterates opposition to Powell nomination before DOJ investigation concludes.

【08:31】【Iran Crisis】International Energy Agency reportedly proposes releasing over 180 million barrels of oil reserves; oil prices turn from rising to falling.

【07:45】【AI + Defense】Anthropic states its AI tools are blacklisted, potentially costing the company billions.

【07:25】【AI + ORCL】Oracle beats earnings expectations, surges 8% after hours.

【06:26】【Iran Crisis】Iran plans to lay mines in the Strait of Hormuz; thousands in stock. Trump: will face unprecedented military consequences (updating).

$1 or less for March 10 US stock market overview====

Tuesday: White House: US did not escort oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz; Dow down 34; oil prices narrow losses

Market focuses on latest developments in Middle East, oil prices remain soft, Dow turns lower. On Tuesday, US Energy Secretary Chris Wright posted on social media that the US Navy successfully escorted an oil tanker through the Strait of Hormuz, but the post was soon deleted. White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt said the US did not escort ships.

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Iranian IRGC responds: the US military escort claim is pure lies; any US and allied actions will be blocked within Iran’s missile and drone range.

Market hopes for end of US-Iran conflict; NY crude settles at $83.45, down 11.94%; Brent drops 11.28%, at $87.8.

The Dow briefly rose 479 points, then retraced to close down 34 points at 47,706; S&P fell 0.21% to 6,636; Nasdaq down 1.5% to 22,061; the Golden Dragon Index, reflecting Chinese concept stocks, rose 1.96%.

US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said Tuesday would be the most intense day of military actions against Iran, with the most fighters and bombers deployed. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Milley said the US is striking Iranian missile boats.

Hegseth described this as a targeted, precise strike, not a prolonged “nation-building” campaign.

UAE oil refinery halted operations after drone attacks. Seven countries’ energy ministers (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, UK, US) held a meeting Tuesday to discuss releasing oil reserves. CNBC sources say the US considers releasing 300-400 million barrels of oil appropriate.

Amazon is returning to the bond market; Bloomberg reports the company will issue up to 11 tranches, from 2 to 50 years. The longest tranche—bonds maturing in 2076—are preliminarily priced about 1.55 percentage points above US Treasuries.

The US dollar index fell 0.3% to 98.93; US 10-year Treasury yields steadied at 4.159%. Gold rebounded 1.9% to $5,206 per ounce; silver rose 2.5% to $86.63.

Memory stocks continued to rebound: Micron (MU) up 3.5%, back above $400; SanDisk (SNDK) up 5%.

Oracle (ORCL) will report earnings after market close.

Junn Henderson’s global multi-asset team heads Adam Hetts and Oliver Blackbourn warn that supply disruptions, rising oil and gas prices, and lack of clear cooling pathways are increasing inflation risks and market volatility. If conflict persists, economic pressures could deepen; but US political considerations might quickly frame the situation as a “victory” or rapid end, leaving asset outlook uncertain.

Hong Kong stocks and ADR markets are continuously updating. For details, see: Next page

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Market Trends:

【21:30】Memory stocks rebound; Micron up 2%; Dow up 101 points; Nasdaq up 0.3%; oil prices retreat 8%.

【18:00】Dow futures up 101 points; Nasdaq futures up 0.3%; oil prices down 7%; Oracle reports earnings.

【12:43】Dow futures down 183 points at 47,586; S&P futures down 24 points at 6,777; Nasdaq futures down 84 points or 0.3% at 24,906.

【12:09】【Apple】Apple reduces dependence on China; iPhone production in India now accounts for 25%.

【11:00】【AI + Defense】Anthropic sues, demands US DoD remove from blacklist.

【10:31】【Iran Crisis】Trump says war will end soon; gold stabilizes and rebounds.

【08:28】【Iran Crisis】Dozens of oil tankers have reached the strait attempting to breach; Iran issues further warnings; Trump at press conference: war with Iran will end soon but no timeline promised (updating).

【08:26】【AI + NVIDIA】Nvidia reportedly plans to launch open-source AI platform “NemoClaw.”

【08:00】【Apple】Apple reportedly delays smart home display device launch again, waiting for new Siri.

$1 or less for March 9 US stock market overview====

Monday: Trump: War nearly over; oil prices plunge; Dow surges 239 points

US President Trump told foreign media that the war is nearly over, describing it as very complete; Iran has no navy, no communications, no air force; their missiles are left in small numbers. Their drones are being destroyed everywhere, including drone manufacturing plants.

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“Look, they have nothing left. In military terms, there’s nothing remaining,” Trump said. “The US can do many things in the Strait of Hormuz,” threatening Iran with consequences if they obstruct the waterway. “They’ve already shot all they can; they’d better not play any tricks, or it will be their end… If they do anything bad, it will be Iran’s end. You will never hear that name again.” Trump also claimed the strait is currently open, with ships entering, but he is still “considering taking control.”

That afternoon, the US Department of Defense posted on X (formerly Twitter): “We are just getting started” and “No mercy.”

Following the statements, oil prices plummeted, and US stocks rebounded. Brent crude fell 1.5% to $91.2; NY crude dropped 3.4% to $88.

The Dow initially surged 886 points to 47,706, then closed up 239 points at 47,740; S&P rose 0.8% to 6,795; Nasdaq up 1.4% at 22,695.

Brent crude initially surged nearly 30%, approaching $120 per barrel. G7 finance ministers held an emergency meeting to discuss coordinated release of strategic petroleum reserves via IEA to counter the spike after Gulf tensions.

French Finance Minister Roland Lescure said G7 has not yet decided on releasing emergency reserves after US-Israel war.

In Brussels, Lescure told reporters, “Our consensus is to use all necessary means to stabilize the market, including possible release of reserves.” He noted governments are closely monitoring the situation; no supply issues have appeared yet.

Japan’s Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said, “The IEA calls on countries to coordinate releasing oil reserves. Given current circumstances, G7 agrees to continue closely monitoring energy markets and take necessary measures, including releasing reserves.” He added that OECD, World Bank, and IMF officials are involved. G7 will soon hold energy ministers’ meeting to discuss further steps.

As of 2022 data, IEA members control over 1.2 billion barrels of emergency oil reserves, mostly crude, held by OECD governments. According to IEA rules, all members must maintain emergency reserves equivalent to at least 90 days of net imports, sufficient to support at least three months of normal consumption.

Market stabilizes; US dollar index down 0.1% at 98.877; US 10-year Treasury yields steady at 4.107%. Gold’s decline narrows to 0.6%, at $5,138; silver up 2.5% at $86.63.

US military continues to demonstrate strength. According to BBC, US B-52 and B-1 heavy bombers are stationed at Royal Air Force Fairford, UK, with three B-52s landing in one day—the first appearance of B-52s in the UK since the conflict began.

B-52s are typical US “forward-deployed” heavy bombers, signaling imminent large-scale air campaigns or escalation. With their large payload capacity, once enemy air defenses are weakened, they can deliver massive conventional ground-attack munitions to destroy infrastructure, industrial targets, or large ground forces.

Additionally, US markets enter daylight saving time, opening one hour earlier at 9:30 PM Hong Kong time.

Swiss bank Julius Baer notes that the oil market has entered a panic state, with prices soaring into triple digits, mainly driven by market sentiment, as the conflict itself has not seen any substantial change. So far, supply disruptions are mainly due to cautious ships avoiding the Strait of Hormuz, causing trade blockages, not military blockades. However, this week and beyond, Middle Eastern oil supply could face up to 75% shutdown.

The bank says it will continue to monitor the situation closely. No significant damage to energy infrastructure has been observed; Iran’s military power appears to be waning. Ensuring shipping routes around the Strait of Hormuz remains a feasible solution. Given the fog of war, they reaffirm a neutral stance on oil and natural gas, maintaining the expectation that energy prices will peak at current or slightly higher levels.