[Red Envelope] 0311: Take profit on Shun Na Xie Xin, get on board with Guo Sheng, let's talk about the main theme for March, and learn to arbitrage on your own!

Continuing the winning streak, since entering Taoxian Public Trading in March, in 8 trading days, 7 wins and 1 loss. This week also continued to hit consecutive gains, with strategies announced before the market, real-time operations during the session, and post-market analysis and review. Always committed to sharing insights like Ma Qian Pao. [Taogu Bar]

Getting back on track, let’s briefly discuss the operations.
First, look at the pre-market:

First, the current emotional state is temporarily distorted. The fundamental reason is the delay caused by Iran Line, which has disrupted the normal rhythm. However, I’ve been mentioning these past days that Iran Line funds are gradually becoming desensitized. Today, it’s basically no longer influenced by Iran Line, so the emotional aspect will inevitably return to normal rhythm.
Next, let’s talk about the operations.
1) Yunnan Energy.
Recently, I’ve been advising everyone to hold positions and do T+0 trading in Yunnan Energy, which is gradually approaching new highs.

Almost every day, whenever Yunnan Energy shows slight fluctuations, some friends ask me how to handle it. My attitude is very clear: the upward motivation remains unchanged, so continue to buy low along the 5-day moving average and sell high. For those interested in my view on Yunnan Energy, you can check out my posts from the past couple of days, which are quite detailed, especially yesterday, where I also shared some quantitative models. The expectation is to trade within small cycles, but instead of focusing on that, look at the larger cycle of the electric power sector, with Yunnan Energy as the anchor. As long as Yunnan Energy doesn’t end, low positions will continue to sprout like bamboo shoots in spring.
PS: Be cautious of an expectation here—Yunnan Energy’s last regulatory day is tomorrow. Be careful of expectations being fulfilled, similar to the intraday pattern of Hang Electric on 2/13.

2) Stop-profit on Shun Na.
Pre-market, I mentioned that Jin Kai, Shun Na, and Neng Ke might have a rebound. Shun Na opened high with a rush for funds, linked with Yunnan Energy and Han Lan’s high open, and Jin Kai also responded strongly at the opening. This was indeed an unexpected move, but a quick observation within the first minute of opening makes it clear: although the opening price showed commitment, the support was weak, especially since other stocks in the sector were actively declining. So I told everyone:

Two minutes after opening, support was weak. I was worried about chasing high, so I advised everyone to hold the first move.

At 33 minutes, Shun Na lost its initiative. When China Energy Construction started to rebound, Shun Na’s momentum was gone. Any surge here is a selling point.
(You can understand this by overlaying the intraday charts of Neng Jian and Shun Na.)
Let me also clarify: for short-term sentiment, initiative and passivity are crucial. Yesterday, I calculated some divergence points. Today, the normal expectation of funds is to identify stocks with high recognition for active rebounds to continue sector enthusiasm. When funds choose Neng Jian, Shun Na’s initiative is already lost. Initiative reflects intraday status; when it’s replaced, it often becomes a selling point.

3) Profit-taking on GCL-Poly.
Since entering Taoxian, GCL-Poly has been held with everyone.

Two days ago, I sold at a high point.
Yesterday, I bought near the moving average for a dip, then grabbed some funds at the close.
Today, I completely took profits and exited.
Continuing to hold positions for T+0 trading yields comparable returns to consecutive limit-ups.

4) Opening a new position in Guosheng.

Let’s talk about the logic, which is also the main point I want to share.
Actually, on March 6, I discussed with everyone that since Han Lan started to show multi-wave patterns with oscillations, there’s a high probability of a second wave in March, as shown in the chart.

Currently, many patterns have the foundation for a second wave. Old dragons like Guosheng from last year, and current ones like Yunnan Energy, Hang Electric, Faar Sheng, as well as newer ones like Ganneng, Yasheng Group, Zhuolang Intelligent, and many others, such as the high-flyer in commercial aerospace Ricka’s oscillation, can be reviewed through K-line analysis. These patterns are all mimicking each other. Given the current sentiment, they haven’t yet formed a collective force. Therefore, the overall tone after March is likely to be a mimicry of various multi-wave patterns. Once you identify such patterns, you can choose to arbitrage at the first limit-up and sell to groups that believe in multi-waves or second waves. This is the first sentence I shared when I arrived at Taoxian: “My expectation is your expectation, my selling point is your buying point.” Now you should understand that my expectation is based on others’ anticipation of a second wave, but I don’t actually bet on the second wave myself. My selling point is your buying point—meaning that Shun Na’s unexpected surge is your buying point, but my selling point is that I’ve lost initiative.

Honestly, I don’t like daily recaps that are just a string of events; they lack value. Just post-mortem summaries of what happened each day are meaningless. Looking back, it’s just history. My articles aim to share my personal thoughts. Sometimes my views may not be perfect, but they are long-term experience summaries. I hope friends reading my thoughts and articles can truly learn something, rather than just making quick profits or losing money foolishly.

Thanks to those who rewarded my previous post. Thank you for your recognition and for helping increase the post’s popularity.
@StarlightMoon@DaruFinance@XiyaXia’sStocks@BigRiseRedPath666@AYoungNovice@OrangeZ@PastAndFutureTrading@Sanderay@QuietLittleWood@MingXiaoShao.

My article is finished. Now it’s up to you, friends. 150 likes before the market opens tomorrow, and I will continue with real trading during the session.