[Red Envelope] The direction of the decline with increased volume and the rise with decreased volume indices has been determined. The main cycle still considers electrical collaboration!!

Today’s Operations: [Taogu Ba]

1. Pino Technology: China Energy Construction hit the daily limit, zero-axis monitoring, arbitrage considers electrical synergy direction

2. Huacan Optoelectronics: +4 focus, turning stronger, volume and price coordination

3. Unfollow AnKao Smart Electric: Maintain strong and weak operations

4. Pattern Han Cable Co.: Continue pattern for rebound betting, no break of the previous four days’ low at low positions, continue pattern!

Preliminary Opinions:

1. Strategy Verification: Domestic computing power and Dalian Chain are a tug-of-war; today Dalian Chain weakens, computing power strengthens

2. Today’s primary focus is on trading volume; no pursuit in optical communications during volume contraction indicates a cautious stance

3. Morning judgment is to actively look for a positive direction in electrical synergy

4. End-of-day stock selection

【Core Conclusions First】

This round of index rebound has lasted three trading days, with the main flaw being volume expansion during declines and volume contraction during rises. The previous two days’ gains had very little real strength; today’s trading volume remains weak, combined with chaotic thematic rotations and increased divergence at high levels. Tomorrow’s index is expected to adjust. Maintaining position control and avoiding chasing highs blindly is the key!

1. Volume determines life and death: shrinking volume is the biggest hidden danger, and the strength of the market is easily seen

Today’s key indicator across the board is trading volume.

Although the index seemed to rebound the day before yesterday and yesterday, the volume kept shrinking, which is a sign of a false rally with no volume; today’s volume still did not effectively expand, directly confirming that this rebound is weak, with insufficient capital support. The market’s strength or weakness is entirely volume-driven:

1. Dalian Chain overall weakening: Zhongji Xuchuang, Tianfu Communications, Yiji Sheng (Yizhong Tian) performed far weaker in bidding than yesterday; PCB leader Dongshan Precision opened below expectations, directly indicating Dalian Chain’s overall weakness today, no chasing high; subsequent Longfei Optical Fiber and Tiantong shares failed to open high, and Huilv Ecology’s attempt to hit the limit was unsuccessful, fully confirming the forecast.
2. Unorganized capital rotation: after Dalian Chain recedes, funds disperse in all directions without a clear main line, leading to a pattern of local excitement and overall weakness, which is an important signal for subsequent index adjustments.

2. Intraday thematic rotation analysis (multi-dimensional view of capital flow)

1. Electrical synergy: Reflux differentiation, mid-camp switching to low positions
After a small dip, China Energy Construction hit the daily limit strongly, driving green energy, energy storage, and inverter sectors to move collectively; green power, GCL Energy Science also hit the limit, marking a small rebound in electrical synergy. However, internal sector rotation is obvious, with high-level targets lacking expansion; capital shifted to grouping around low-position mid-camp China Energy Construction, which opened with reduced volume and is expected to open +3 tomorrow, with stocks in electrical synergy competing for buying at the close, based on mid-camp expectations; the strength of electrical synergy later depends on China Energy Construction’s opening performance and the overall trend of major stocks in the sector.

2. Financial + Panel: Short-term support, but unable to change the downward trend
Brokerage and other financial sectors briefly gained strength, pushing the index above 4124; meanwhile, Huacan Optoelectronics (panel) strengthened, but this rally was volume-less support with poor sustainability. Subsequently, electrical synergy slightly retreated, and funds did not form a combined force.

3. Chemical pulse: News-driven, diverting thematic funds
Midday chemical news stimulated the sector, which strengthened against the trend; after JinNiu Chemical hit the limit, funds shifted away from electrical synergy, causing GCL Energy Science to fail to hit the limit, and Baofeng Energy followed with a limit-up; this kind of news-driven rebound is short-term arbitrage and does not have a mainline quality.

4. US-Iran conflict: Suppresses the entire market, beware of hitting the limit
The US-Iran conflict theme strengthened, causing significant capital diversion and emotional suppression across sectors; after 1 pm, the hit rate soared, reflecting obvious emotional divergence. Future focus should be on how this theme siphons market funds.

3. Core targets and cycle characterization (multi-dimensional trend analysis)

1. Optical fiber sector: Longfei Fiber failed to break new highs today, with the stock price stopping short; if volume does not break out, beware of forming a double top; do not blindly bottom fish.
2. Main cycle theme: The current market’s main cycle remains electrical synergy; other themes are rotation arbitrage. Short-term cycle views remain unchanged; focusing on the main line is key to profitability.
3. Tech sector: Yesterday was collectively euphoric; today, after inertia-driven surge, rapid differentiation occurred, with clear fund outflows. The sector will enter a consolidation phase; avoid chasing high-tech stocks at high levels.

4. Tomorrow’s focus (follow the system closely to avoid pitfalls)

Index: Expect adjustment tomorrow; volume contraction rebound is ending, and the flaws of volume decline during rises and no volume during declines cannot be fixed. Be cautious of index retesting support levels.

Themes:

1. Whether electrical synergy and China Energy Construction’s opening exceed expectations
2. Whether chemical sector continues to strengthen
3. Whether big tech sectors return

Key stocks in each theme and tomorrow’s focus

Electrical synergy: China Energy Construction, Zeyu Intelligent, Beijing Ke Rui, Jinkai New Energy

Chemical: JinNiu Chemical, Chitianhua

Continue to watch: GCL Integration, N Gude Electric

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