"Throat" obstruction, oil prices break $100! ETF focuses on these three main themes

(Source: ETF Trillion Index)

Recently, oil prices have become a focus of attention. As of the latest data, Brent crude oil remains above $100 per barrel.

The International Energy Agency reports that oil and petroleum product shipments through the Strait of Hormuz have decreased by over 90% from an average of about 20 million barrels per day to “extremely low levels,” causing global daily oil supply to drop by approximately 8 million barrels in March.

The significant supply gap has directly driven up oil prices. The market generally believes that current oil price movements are highly sensitive to geopolitical news, with the progress of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz being the key variable in determining short-term price direction.

What is the outlook for future oil prices?

Whether oil prices will temporarily spike or shift to a long-term higher range depends on the duration of conflicts and the extent of supply chain damage. Tianfeng Securities suggests that, under a baseline scenario, if conflicts ease, oil prices may experience a one-time jump and then fall back; however, if conflicts persist or infrastructure is severely damaged, the price center faces upward risk. Industrial Securities also points out that whether oil prices remain high long-term and ultimately influence economic and policy directions is a core variable in their ability to impact asset prices over the long run.

High oil prices are already impacting global inflation and growth prospects. For the U.S., Wenzhou Securities estimates that if oil prices stay at $100 per barrel (transmission rate 50%) throughout the year, the year-end CPI year-over-year growth could reach 3.48%. If prices rise to $150 per barrel (transmission rate 100%), CPI could soar to 7.15%.

This will undoubtedly squeeze the Federal Reserve’s room for rate cuts. For China, rising oil prices transmit through PPI to CPI. Founder Securities estimates that if the oil price center reaches $85–$100 per barrel by 2026, it could boost China’s PPI by about 1.5%–2.8% and CPI by approximately 0.9%–1.0%. However, domestic refined oil pricing mechanisms provide some buffer, making the impact relatively controllable.

Asset chains benefiting from high oil prices

Based on views from multiple institutions, the asset opportunities under high oil prices can be summarized into three logical chains:

1. Direct beneficiaries: Profit margins increase

Rising oil prices directly boost profits in upstream exploration and extraction, oilfield services, and transportation industries. For example, the shipping sector benefits from increased route risk premiums and rerouting, leading to tighter capacity.

2. Energy substitution chain: Economic advantages become more apparent

High oil prices enhance the economic viability of alternative energy sources, including:

1. Traditional energy replacements such as coal, natural gas, and coal chemicals.

2. Accelerated adoption of new energy: demand for photovoltaics, wind power, energy storage, and electric vehicles receives long-term support.

3. Biofuels: increased demand for palm oil, soybean oil, and other biofuels.

3. Cost transmission chain: Inflation spillover

As a fundamental raw material, rising crude oil prices push up costs for fertilizers, pesticides, and other agricultural inputs, further transmitting to agricultural product prices. Meanwhile, precious metals like gold, as inflation hedges and safe-haven assets, see increased allocation value.

ETF investment ideas: From commodity sources to alternative sectors

We can deploy ETFs to capture these logical chains, as shown in the chart below:

Related ETFs include:

• Oil ETF (561360)
• S&P Oil & Gas ETF (159738)
• Commodities ETF (510170)
• Nonferrous Metals ETF (512400)
• Chemical ETF (516020)
• New Energy ETF (516160)
• Coal ETF (515220)
• Energy ETF (159930)
• Solar ETF (515790)
• Power ETF (561560)
• Utilities ETF (China Universal, 159159)

In summary, high volatility in the oil market has become the norm. Investors should focus on the three main lines: “Direct benefits – Energy substitution – Cost transmission,” and diversify through ETFs.

In the short term, close attention should be paid to signals of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz and the pace of strategic reserve releases by various countries; in the medium to long term, it is essential to assess whether high oil prices will materially alter the global inflation trajectory and monetary policies, which will ultimately determine the direction of asset price reshaping.