Is XP (XP) Now Offering Value After Recent 1-Year Share Price Rebound?

Simply Wall St

Fri, February 13, 2026 at 5:18 PM GMT+9 4 min read

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XP

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If you are trying to figure out whether XP is genuinely good value or just looks cheap at first glance, you are in the right place.

XP shares last closed at US$19.77, with returns of 6.1% over 7 days, 16.2% over 30 days, 22.2% year to date, 39.3% over 1 year and 39.6% over 3 years, set against a 54.5% decline over 5 years.

Those mixed returns sit against a backdrop of ongoing attention on XP's position as a diversified financials player and how it is responding to changes in investor appetite for financial services in its core markets. Recent news coverage has focused on XP's role in that sector and how investors are weighing its long term prospects.

XP currently has a valuation score of 5 out of 6. This means it screens as undervalued on most of the checks we run. Next we will walk through the main valuation approaches before finishing with a way to think about value that can give even more context.

XP delivered 39.3% returns over the last year. See how this stacks up to the rest of the Capital Markets industry.

Approach 1: XP Excess Returns Analysis

The Excess Returns model looks at how much profit XP can earn on its equity compared with the return that shareholders require. The difference between those two is the excess return, which is then projected into the future and discounted back to estimate what the shares could be worth today.

For XP, the model uses a Book Value of $45.01 per share and a Stable EPS of $12.60 per share, based on weighted future Return on Equity estimates from 10 analysts. The Average Return on Equity is 24.39%, while the Cost of Equity is $6.37 per share. This leaves an Excess Return of $6.23 per share. The Stable Book Value used in the model is $51.63 per share, based on estimates from 5 analysts.

Combining these inputs, the Excess Returns model produces an intrinsic value of about $23.30 per share. Compared with the recent share price of $19.77, this suggests XP trades at roughly a 15.2% discount, so it screens as undervalued on this method.

Result: UNDERVALUED

Our Excess Returns analysis suggests XP is undervalued by 15.2%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 55 more high quality undervalued stocks.

XP Discounted Cash Flow as at Feb 2026

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for XP.

Approach 2: XP Price vs Earnings

For profitable companies, the P/E ratio is a useful shorthand because it links what you pay for each share to the earnings the business is currently generating. It gives you a quick sense of how much the market is willing to pay for each dollar of profit.

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What counts as a “normal” P/E depends on how quickly earnings are expected to grow and how risky those earnings appear to be. Higher expected growth and lower perceived risk usually support a higher P/E, while slower growth or higher risk tend to justify a lower one.

XP currently trades on a P/E of 10.58x. That sits below the Capital Markets industry average P/E of 22.11x and also below the peer group average of 20.74x. Simply Wall St also calculates a proprietary “Fair Ratio” for XP of 17.23x. This is an estimate of the P/E that might be reasonable given its earnings growth profile, industry, profit margin, market cap and key risks.

This Fair Ratio can be more informative than a simple industry or peer comparison because it adjusts for XP’s specific characteristics rather than assuming all companies in the group deserve similar multiples. Comparing XP’s current P/E of 10.58x with the Fair Ratio of 17.23x indicates that the shares appear undervalued on this metric.

Result: UNDERVALUED

NasdaqGS:XP P/E Ratio as at Feb 2026

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Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your XP Narrative

Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation. On Simply Wall St’s Community page you can use Narratives to attach your own story about XP to specific forecasts for revenue, earnings and margins. You can then translate that story into a Fair Value and compare it with the current price, with the tool updating automatically as new news or earnings arrive. A more optimistic XP view might align with a Fair Value near the higher analyst targets around US$25.41 to US$26.00, while a cautious view might sit closer to the lower end around US$16.73 to US$19.31. You can see all of these side by side to decide what makes sense for you.

Do you think there’s more to the story for XP? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

NasdaqGS:XP 1-Year Stock Price Chart

_ This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned._

Companies discussed in this article include XP.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly._ Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com_

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