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65% of bitcoins are protected from quantum computing threats.
A new research report indicates that quantum computing represents a long-term threat to bitcoin, however it is unlikely to pose a danger to the network in the near future. Experts note that the development of this technology will occur gradually, which will give developers and investors time to implement post-quantum security measures.
A new research report from Ark Invest and Unchained, a financial company specializing in bitcoin, which examines the relationship between quantum computing and bitcoin security, concluded that while quantum technologies could ultimately compromise the network's cryptography, this threat is still far from inevitable.
According to the study, modern quantum systems operate in an era that researchers call "noisy intermediate-scale quantum" (NISQ), where machines typically operate with fewer than 100 logical qubits and limited computational depth. To break bitcoin's elliptic curve-based cryptography would require at least 2,330 logical qubits and millions to billions of quantum operations, far exceeding today's capabilities.
Instead of a sudden "Q-day," when bitcoin's security collapses, researchers argue that progress in quantum technology will likely occur through a series of gradual technological stages. These stages range from early scientific applications, such as materials simulation and chemistry, to the eventual ability to attack weak cryptographic systems.
Only at later stages could quantum computers begin to threaten bitcoin's elliptic curve digital signature algorithm (ECDSA), which secures private keys and transactions.
Even then, attacks would likely be slow and costly, requiring significant computational resources. According to the report's estimates, electricity costs alone could amount to around $100,000 to break a single bitcoin key in early quantum attack scenarios.