The Colorful Tripartite Game: Middle East Situation + Rate Cut Variables + Peak Season Demand! Huabao Fund Precious Metals ETF (159876) Rises 1.37%, Attracting Over 100 Million Yuan in Net Inflows Over the Past 10 Days

On Friday, March 13th, the market consolidated. Major A-share indices all closed in the red. The intra-market price of the broad-based ETF covering leading companies in the gold, rare earth, copper, aluminum, and other non-ferrous metals sectors (159876) initially rose by 1.37% in the morning, then retreated with the market, and by the close, its decline widened to 2.41%.

Data from the Shenzhen Stock Exchange shows that the non-ferrous ETF (159876) attracted a total of 110 million yuan in net inflows over the past 10 days, reflecting that funds are not afraid of market fluctuations and are confidently optimistic about the future performance of the non-ferrous metals sector, with early entry and positioning.

Regarding constituent stocks, leading copper company Hailiang Co. rose over 5%, while lithium giants Shengxin Lithium Energy and Tianqi Lithium gained more than 1%. On the downside, tungsten leader Xiamen Tungsten fell over 8%, and copper giants Baiyin Nonferrous and gold leader Hunan Gold dropped more than 4%, leading to a drag on the index performance.

On the macroeconomic level, amid Middle East geopolitical conflicts, energy prices surged, U.S. inflation heated up, and Federal Reserve rate cut expectations weakened. Meanwhile, the strong rebound of the U.S. dollar index suppressed international commodity prices for gold, silver, and copper. CITIC Construction Investment pointed out that the previous macroeconomic support for the “bull market” in non-ferrous metals was the relatively loose global fiscal and monetary environment. Now, with shrinking rate cut expectations, there is some drag on non-ferrous metal prices.

However, on the industry side, there is some market expectation for the traditional peak season of “Gold March and Silver April.” In February, the manufacturing PMI in the Northern Hemisphere remained stable overall, indicating that manufacturing activity may quickly transition into the seasonal peak. Additionally, recent expectations of “export rush” in fields like lithium batteries and photovoltaics support demand for certain metals.

It is worth noting that the conflict in the Middle East has strengthened the logic of aluminum supply shortages, leading to relatively strong aluminum prices. The Middle East accounts for about 9% of global electrolytic aluminum capacity. CITIC Securities stated that if the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, oil and gas prices and overseas electricity prices could continue to rise sharply. As one of the metals with the highest electricity consumption density, the aluminum industry is particularly affected by energy price fluctuations.

Looking ahead, CITIC Construction Investment Futures indicated that if inflation driven by geopolitical conflicts can be controlled within a reasonable range, the non-ferrous sector is still relatively optimistic for the year under a loose macro environment. The price increases of various commodities will depend on the tightness of mineral supply and the connection to emerging demand.

【The non-ferrous sector is on the rise, and the “super cycle” is unstoppable】

The Huabao (159876) non-ferrous ETF and its associated funds (Class A: 017140, Class C: 017141) fully cover industries such as copper, aluminum, gold, rare earths, and lithium, including precious metals (hedging), strategic metals (growth), and industrial metals (recovery). This comprehensive coverage better captures the beta trends of the entire sector. Additionally, this ETF is a margin trading target and an efficient tool for one-click exposure to the non-ferrous metals sector.

As of the end of February, Huabao (159876) had a latest scale of 2.427 billion yuan, with an average daily trading volume of over 10 million yuan in the past month. Among all three ETFs tracking the same index in the market, it ranks first in both size and liquidity.

Institutional views are based on sources: ① CITIC Construction Investment Futures’ March 13th opinion, see article “‘Gold March and Silver April’ Arrives, What Trading Opportunities Are There in the Non-Ferrous Sector?”; ② CITIC Securities’ March 4th report “Metals | Rising Middle East Tensions May Catalyze Unexpected Aluminum Price Surge”.

Note: The Huabao (159876) non-ferrous ETF was previously known as the Leading Non-Ferrous ETF on the market.

ETF fee-related notes: When investors subscribe or redeem fund shares, the authorized agencies may charge a commission of up to 0.5%. The trading fee on the exchange is based on the actual charges of the securities company. No sales service fee is charged for the ETF.

Associated fund fee notes: Huabao CSI Non-Ferrous Metals ETF Initiated Fund (Class A) has a subscription fee of 1,000 yuan per transaction for subscriptions of 2 million yuan or more, 0.6% for 1-2 million yuan, and 1% for less than 1 million yuan. Redemption fees are 1.5% if held less than 7 days, and 0% if held 7 days or more, with no sales service fee. Huabao CSI Non-Ferrous Metals ETF Initiated Fund (Class C) charges no subscription fee, with redemption fees of 1.5% if held less than 7 days, and 0% if held 7 days or more; sales service fee is 0.3%.

Risk warning: The Huabao non-ferrous ETF passively tracks the CSI Non-Ferrous Metals Index, which was launched on December 31, 2013, and published on July 13, 2015. The index’s performance over the past five full years was: 2021, +35.89%; 2022, -19.22%; 2023, -10.43%; 2024, +2.96%; 2025, +91.67%. The index component stocks are adjusted according to the index rules; past performance does not predict future results. The constituent stocks shown are for display only; stock descriptions are not investment advice and do not reflect holdings or trading activity of any fund managed by the manager. The risk level of this fund is assessed as R3 - medium risk, suitable for balanced (C3) and above investors. Suitability matching opinions are subject to the sales institution. All information in this article (including but not limited to individual stocks, comments, forecasts, charts, indicators, theories, or any other forms) is for reference only. Investors are responsible for their own investment decisions. The views, analysis, and forecasts in this article do not constitute investment advice and do not hold the author or any associated fund responsible for any direct or indirect losses. Investment in funds involves risks; past performance does not guarantee future results. The performance of other funds managed by the fund manager does not guarantee the performance of this fund. Please invest cautiously.