【Alibaba Results】Alibaba to Release Results on Thursday; Brokers Expect Adjusted Net Profit to Fall 42%

SocialAnxietyStaker · 2026-03-15T12:39:57+00:00

Alibaba will report its third-quarter earnings on Thursday, with forecasted revenue of 289.8 billion yuan, up 3% year-over-year, but adjusted net profit is expected to decrease by 42%. The core e-commerce business has been impacted by weak macroeconomic consumer demand, leading to increased losses, while cloud and AI businesses are anticipated to be the highlights, with revenue growing by about 33%. Investment in AI may limit overall profitability.

SocialAnxietyStaker

2026-03-15 12:39:57

Abstract generation in progress

Alibaba (09988) will announce its fiscal third-quarter results on Thursday. According to consensus forecasts from comprehensive brokerages, revenue for October to December 2025 is expected to reach 289.8 billion yuan (RMB), a 3% year-over-year increase. Adjusted net profit is projected at 29.58 billion yuan, down 42%. Huatai Securities indicates that the core e-commerce segment is expected to experience operational deleverage due to weak GMV performance, potentially leading to a decline in net profit (excluding instant retail and delivery services). Additionally, the group’s extra investments in large models and AI applications across various business lines may further constrain overall profitability.

J.P. Morgan’s report anticipates that Alibaba’s core e-commerce growth will slow due to the weak macro consumer environment. It expects the core Customer Management Revenue (CMR) growth rate to decelerate from 10% in Q3 to 1%, dragging Taobao/Tmall Group (excluding fast commerce) EBITA (Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization) down by 8%. It also forecasts that local life services will see reduced subsidies, with fast commerce losses expected to decrease from 35 billion yuan in Q3 to 21 billion yuan. However, due to management’s “market share first” strategy, reaching breakeven will proceed at a slower pace.

J.P. Morgan expects cloud and AI businesses to be the biggest highlights, predicting that cloud intelligence group revenue will accelerate from 34% in Q2 to 37%. As “generative AI” workloads shift from pilot projects to broader deployment, cloud revenue growth is expected to continue accelerating over the coming quarters, demonstrating Alibaba’s strength in capturing China’s AI demand.

Market consensus estimates cloud business revenue at 42.36 billion yuan, a 33% year-over-year increase.

CICC also remains optimistic about cloud and AI businesses, believing they could offset the impact of slowing CMR growth amid macro headwinds. It forecasts Alibaba Cloud revenue to grow by 36%, mainly driven by internal business penetration and strong external customer demand. However, due to ongoing investments in AI fields (such as Tongyi Qianwen app, Amap, Quark AI glasses, etc.), losses in other business segments are expected to expand to 6.8 billion yuan RMB.

Mizuho Securities reports that Alibaba possesses China’s most valuable cloud assets, positioning it very favorably to capitalize on the strong market demand for AI.

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