Convertible Bonds Pre-Market Watch on March 16 (Weak External Markets)

Wednesday, March 13, 2026, Shanghai -0.81%, Shenzhen -0.65%, ChiNext -0.22%. Convertible bond index -1.27%, trading volume around 73.514 billion yuan.

Weekend Highlights Summary:

1. Domestic Policies (Core Positive News)

• Full release of the 15th Five-Year Plan: focusing on new quality productivity, with key support for AI, green energy, biomedicine, and high-end manufacturing

• 1.3 trillion yuan special national bonds with clear purposes: 800 billion for major strategic projects, 200 billion for equipment upgrades, 100 billion for consumer upgrades and replacements

• CSRC new regulations on short-term trading (effective April 7): clarifies 13 exemptions, removing barriers for long-term funds entering the market

• PBOC injected 500 billion yuan through 6-month reverse repos on March 16, easing liquidity

• Domestic approval of brain-computer interface medical devices, benefiting innovative healthcare

• Pilot launch of county-level charging and swapping stations to address gaps, benefiting charging piles/new energy vehicles

2. External Factors and Sentiment (Bearish)

• US stocks declined for three consecutive weeks, with tech leading the decline, suppressing growth stock risk appetite

• Brent crude oil surpassing $103, increasing imported inflation pressure, negative for airlines/logistics

• Federal Reserve and ECB maintaining interest rates, delaying rate cuts

• 6th round of China-US trade negotiations (March 14-17), focusing on foreign trade sector

3. Next Week Catalysts (Event-Driven)

• March 16: NVIDIA GTC 2026 — AI computing power, optical modules, hardware catalysts

• March 17-18: Commercial Aerospace Conference — satellite internet, low-altitude economy

• March 18: Munich Shanghai Optical Expo — optical communications

• March 20: Huawei Spring Launch — consumer electronics

4. Capital and Market

• January-February social financing of 9.6 trillion yuan, M2 growth at 9%, liquidity remains ample

• Northbound funds had a net inflow of 3.267 billion yuan on Friday against the trend

• Friday’s A-shares declined: Shanghai Composite -0.81%, Shenzhen Component -0.65%, ChiNext -0.22%; energy led gains, AI/computing power declined

5. Risk Alerts

• High proportion of lock-up releases next week: pressure on Yaguang Co. and others

• March 15 Evening Gala: potential negative exposure in consumption, finance, and public safety sectors

Tongyu: Largest volume, main stock supports convertible bonds following, no premium now, but the market cap is large, so following the main stock should not be too deep in position.

Baichuan: Yesterday’s main stock closed with a one-word tail, convertible bond premium was wiped out, today’s opening failed to recover, continue to watch for stock-bond linkage tomorrow.

Dazhong: Failed to break the limit, significant premium decline in convertible bonds, continue to monitor main stocks and non-ferrous metals.

Saili: Announced redemption, large premium drop, low-open and decline, bonds with some premium cannot be gambled on redemption.

Jinko: Low premium, very large market cap, follow bond linkage.

Hongqiang: Same as Baichuan, focus on Hongbaoli, Jinniu Chemical and other stocks in the same sector.

Dongshi: 9 trading days left, position not high but volatile, especially more dangerous as time goes on.

My main focus tomorrow (Dongshi, Saili, Baichuan) $Dongshi Convertible Bond (sh113575)$ $Saili Convertible Bond (sh113601)$

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