🗞️ Middle-Aged Retail Investor's Self-Rescue Guide | March 15 Market Daily Report

🪙 【Crypto Highlights】BTC: Retail Investors Stuck at the 70k Gate
BTC is hovering around 71,000 USD today, having nearly halved from the October high of 126,000, barely holding above 70,000 and entering a "difficult stabilization" phase.
Key resistance sits at 72,800 USD, with support at 70,500. If 70,500 breaks, stop pretending to be calm. 66,000 is the last line of defense below.
Biggest catalyst this week: FOMC meeting scheduled for March 17-18. Market volatility will likely amplify by then. Every time dovish rate-cut expectations get crushed, BTC gets beaten down alongside US stocks. Also, Bitcoin's 20 millionth coin was mined on March 10, with only 1 million BTC remaining to be mined. The scarcity narrative is reignited—though it might not help short-term.
ETH: The Hardest Hit
ETH is currently around 2,091 USD with a slight decline. The Fear & Greed Index is only at 15, in extreme fear territory, yet Ethereum whale wallets have surged 32% year-to-date to 25.55 million ETH, with exchange reserves hitting multi-year lows at 16M—the so-called smart money is buying frantically in extreme fear while retail shakes in their boots. ETH/BTC ratio is still at multi-year lows; tough luck for both, but BTC is clearly more resilient.
The long-awaited Glamsterdam upgrade is expected H1 2026, aiming to enhance L1 scalability, reform MEV, introduce parallel processing, and expand gas limits to 200 million. Long-term bullish, but partially priced in short-term. It's all just air-pumping at this point.
SOL: Finished Falling but Still Short of Breath
SOL rose slightly 0.4% today. Down over 50% from highs, multiple global asset managers are running tokenized RWA projects on Solana, on-chain transaction volume and institutional capital inflows remain positive—fundamentals are the most resilient among mainstream coins this cycle, but retail sentiment is so terrible it can't fly yet.
Macro Undercurrent: How Much Does Iran War Really Matter?
US-Iran conflict dampened global risk appetite, yet mysteriously, crypto selloffs are smaller than expected. Arthur Hayes predicts if Middle East conflict escalates, BTC could reach 200k or higher—war → fiscal expansion → money printing → hard assets benefit. The logic isn't unfounded, but don't get excited yet. Right now we're still stuck in the 70k mud.
Polymarket Hot Bet: Can BTC hit 75,000 in March? Market gives 66% probability. March has only half a month left, retail bettors wagering on 66%... good luck, I'll just watch from the sidelines.
SEC × CFTC Regulatory Grand Reconciliation: March 6, SEC and CFTC rarely announced joint regulatory coordination in an unprecedented move, ushering in a new era of industry regulation. This is genuine long-term upside, but don't expect it to pump the market immediately. Boots hitting the ground often trigger sell-the-news reactions.
📉 【A-Share】Grinding Through Volatility, Old Friends Stay Steady
Friday Close (March 13) A-Share: Shanghai Composite 4,126 points, down 0.07%; Shenzhen Component 14,351 points, down 0.16%; ChiNext 3,315 points, down 0.07%; turnover ~2.38 trillion.
Style divergence is clear: Energy, chemicals, and cyclical sectors stay active on oil price surges, while AI computing, semiconductors and other previous hot spots took profits at highs. Iran tensions made Strait of Hormuz the world's most expensive waterway; anything energy-related is being grabbed.
Galaxy Strategy believes A-shares demonstrated resilience amid global market adjustments, with the market transitioning from "sentiment-driven" to "fundamentals-driven." Annual reports and Q1 earnings will enter dense disclosure season, with performance becoming the core anchor for next-stage moves.
My Shenghe Resources (600392) and China Zinc (000751)... zinc bounced a bit with cyclical sectors lately, but rare earths remain on watch. Base metals followed oil up but capital rotation is messy. Just observe for now, don't chase highs.
📊 【US Stocks】Tech Bear, Energy Bull, S&P Breaking Levels Continuously
Friday US three major indices closed lower: S&P 500 down 0.61% at 6,632, Dow down 0.26% at 46,558, Nasdaq down 0.93% at 22,105. The S&P is experiencing its longest weekly losing streak since March 2025.
The Seven Magnificent fell silent, financials got hammered. The S&P 500 has shrunk 3.5% from January peaks, losing the 120-day line for 4 consecutive days—technicals look ugly. But energy stocks are counter-trend; as long as Middle East tensions persist, oil stocks stay strong.
Barclays has already adjusted rate-cut expectations. With FOMC meeting this week, markets are caught between "war inflation" and "Fed inaction," immobilized.
🌍 【Macro】Summary in One Line
Iran War + FOMC = Biggest uncertainty this week. Oil staying elevated prevents inflation expectations from rising, compressing rate-cut space. All global risk assets are holding their breath waiting for direction. Crypto relatively resilient, A-shares relatively resilient, US tech stocks most fragile.
Retail friends, in this environment, watch more and move less. Keep powder dry, wait for clearer direction before acting.
⚠️ The above is personal record, not investment advice. Don't blame me if you lose, don't thank me if you win. The market is always right; we're all just wheat waiting to be harvested.