Here are the 5 big things we're watching in the stock market in the week ahead

The Federal Reserve’s latest interest rate decision, a batch of economic data, and several notable earnings reports are all on the docket this week. However, the biggest event for Wall Street will arguably be out in California, as Nvidia holds its influential AI technology conference. Well, that is what we would usually say heading into Nvidia’s GTC — where Jim Cramer will be this week with a who’s who of CEO interviews, including Jensen Huang himself. Not only is the AI chipmaker the world’s most valuable company, but large swaths of the market are riding the AI buildout wave. But things are different this year. 1. The reality of the moment is that the most important thing for both Wall Street and Main Street is what happens with the Strait of Hormuz and, by extension, oil prices during the Iran war. It’s not hyperbole to say that, as far as the stock market is concerned, it’s all that matters. GTC takes a back seat. So does Fed Chair Jerome Powell, even if there’s some intrigue around how the central bank would handle oil-driven inflation at the same time the labor market is cooling. As we discussed in the early days of the war, oil is the lifeblood of the global economy. From corporate income statements to bank accounts, higher oil prices represent a large, unavoidable cost that competes with all other purchases. For that reason, the stock market will likely continue taking its cue from oil. Investors will likely cheer anything that suggests vessels bearing flags other than Iran and China will soon be able to pass through the Strait safely. On the other hand, signs that the vital shipping route for a fifth of the world’s oil remains largely off limits will pose a problem for stocks. Still, we must keep tabs on everything else that would usually hold more significant sway over the market. In the event the Strait does indeed open, we would expect to see buyers rush back into the market in search of anything that was taken back on fears of higher-for-longer oil prices. 2. Nvidia’s GTC kicks off Monday with a keynote from Jensen. Perhaps the biggest thing to watch for is an update on Nvidia’s rumored inference-focused AI chip, following its licensing agreement with startup Groq late last year. We did a deep dive into Groq on Friday, explaining why a chip targeting the daily use of AI models is so critical. Outside of any Groq-related news, we’re listening for updates on Nvidia’s next-generation Vera Rubin chip family, which is on pace to start shipping to customers in the second half of 2026. Additionally, any fresh details on Rubin’s successor architecture — dubbed Feynman after theoretical physicist Richard Feynman and planned to debut in 2028 — will be noteworthy, as Nvidia continues to push the envelope on innovation to stay ahead of the competition. Despite being known for its graphics processing units (GPUs), we’re also likely to hear a lot about Nvidia’s central processing units (CPUs) thanks to the rise of agentic AI. Prepare to hear a lot about optics, too. With GPUs, CPUs and anything Groq-infused, we’re talking about the brains of the computer, the processors that crunch the numbers. Optics are on the side of networking, a complementary basket of technology that serves as the highway for data, enabling all the “brains” to communicate with each other. Copper has historically been a key backbone of networking gear, but today’s modern accelerated data centers are creating a bigger role for fiber-optics technology — the crux of our thesis in Corning. Right now, fiber-optics is being used to connect server racks across the data center, in what’s known as “scale-out.” But a major debate is the “scale-up” timeline for seeing more optical technology inside individual server racks, where copper is king. For example, a single full server rack of Nvidia’s current generation Grace Blackwell platform has more than 5,000 copper cables in it . Earlier this month, Broadcom ‘s CEO Hock Tan made the case for copper staying relevant in “scale-up” uses for longer than perhaps some expected, sending the optical stocks lower on March 5. At GTC, Jensen’s commentary on the copper-to-optics transition figures to have implications for shares of Corning , as well as others like Lumentum and Coherent , both of which recently partnered with Nvidia to further drive innovation in the optics space. Speaking of optics, we would be remiss to not call out that the Optical Fiber Communication Conference also takes place next week in Los Angeles. With the growing interest in optics, the commentary and announcements at this conference will likely move stocks in the group, too. On Friday, Broadcom announced that it would be presenting at the conference and showcasing “industry-leading solutions for scaling AI infrastructure”. Financially, at GTC, we’ll be looking for additional commentary on Nvidia’s revenue backlog and perhaps any details beyond what management shared on its fourth-quarter conference call in late February. Here’s what CFO Colette Kress said then: “We expect sequential revenue growth throughout calendar 2026, exceeding what was included in the $500 billion Blackwell and Rubin revenue opportunity we shared last year. We believe we have inventory and supply commitments in place to address future demand, including shipments, extending into calendar 2027.” As mentioned, Jensen’s keynote is on Monday. If we get anything new on the financials, that would come on Tuesday during Nvidia’s financial analyst Q & A , which kicks off at noon ET. Jensen is set to be on “Mad Money” on Tuesday evening. 3. The Fed’s March policy meeting concludes Wednesday afternoon, and it’s largely expected that the Fed will leave its benchmark overnight lending rate unchanged. That means most of the intrigue will be Chair Powell’s post-meeting press conference. This is also one of the four Fed meetings each year at which central bankers provide their Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) — on U.S. GDP growth, the unemployment rate, inflation, and year-end expectations for interest rates. With the February jobs report showing an unexpected decline in payrolls and oil spiking on the back of the Iran war, stoking inflation concerns, central bankers have their work cut out for themselves with these projections. At the Club, our investment decisions aren’t guided by the Fed’s SEP outlook, but it’s capable of moving the market upon release, so it’s helpful to know it’s due out. 4. There are a few other economic developments on the horizon, most notably the February producer price index (PPI) on Wednesday morning, a few hours before the Fed decision. The PPI report is usually an important reading that provides insight into manufacturing input costs for businesses, which can foretell pricing actions in the future (think price hikes). But, as with the two inflation reports we got last week, the upcoming PPI data covers a period of time when the Strait of Hormuz was open — or, put another way, when oil was some $30 cheaper per barrel. At the least, the PPI will provide a refreshed baseline for wholesale inflation before the oil spike. On the manufacturing side, on Monday, we’ll get the Fed’s monthly look at industrial production and capacity utilization numbers. Then on Wednesday morning, the Census Bureau’s full report on factory orders is due out. On housing, we’ve got pending home sales out Tuesday and new home sales out Thursday. As investors in Home Depot , which relies on housing turnover to drive business, we’ve been waiting for the market to pick up. But it’s difficult to imagine housing activity getting any better as long as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed and energy prices remain elevated. With investors selling bonds due to renewed inflation concerns, leading to an increase in bond yields, we’ve seen the 30-year fixed mortgage rate go the wrong way , reaching its highest level since September on Friday. The 10-year Treasury yield influences mortgage rates. The bottom line for Main Street and Wall Street right now, as learned last week , is that nothing matters more than getting the Strait of Hormuz reopened. While governments are tapping petroleum reserves in an attempt to blunt the supply shock and the U.S. is easing sanctions on Russian crude, oil prices rallying despite these actions indicate they’re nothing more than a temporary band-aid. On Friday, both U.S. oil standard WTI and global benchmark Brent settled at their highest levels since the summer of 2022, at $98.71 and $103.14, respectively. 5. A handful of earnings reports from companies outside the Club portfolio will offer some real-time insights into how their customers’ behavior has evolved since the war in Iran broke out. Tech and other sectors will also be represented. On the consumer-oriented side, Dollar Tree is set to report Monday morning, followed by Five Below on Wednesday evening. Both cater to value-oriented shoppers, so what these management teams have to say about recent traffic trends is noteworthy. On the higher end, we’ll hear from Lululemon on Tuesday evening, Macy’s and Williams-Sonoma on Wednesday morning, and Signet Jewelers on Thursday morning. Also on Thursday morning, we’ll get a sense of the consumer’s appetite for eating out when Olive Garden parent Darden reports. Away from the consumer, Micron is slated to report Wednesday evening, and its commentary on supply-and-demand dynamics in the memory chip market may have ripple effects across the tech sector and beyond. While the recent surge in memory prices stems from booming AI data center demand, it’s put companies in the consumer electronics space in a bind: eat the higher costs at the expense of your margins, or raise prices to offset them, potentially eroding sales. Israeli defense company Elbit Systems , which reports Tuesday morning, can provide some insight into global defense spending intentions now that there is a war in Iran. FedEx is out with results Thursday evening. FedEx is particularly notable because the company’s 30,000-foot view on global commerce can provide important insight into consumer and business activity across industries. Week ahead Monday, March 16 Industrial production at 8:30 a.m. ET Before the bell: Dollar Tree (DLTR), KE Holdings (BEKE), Science Applications (SAIC) After the bell: Adecoagra (AGRO) Tuesday, March 17 Pending home sales at 10 a.m. ET Before the bell: Elbit (ESLT), Tencent Music (TME), Academy Sports and Outdoors (ASO) After the bell: Oklo (OKLO), lululemon (LULU), Docusign (DOCU), ZTO Express (ZTO) Wednesday, March 18 Producer price index (PPI) at 8:30 a.m. ET Factory orders at 10 a.m. ET Federal Reserve interest rate decision at 2 p.m. ET Chair Jerome Powell’s post-meeting press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET Before the bell: General Mills (GIS), Macy’s (M), Williams-Sonoma (WSM), Jabil (JBL) After the bell: Micron (MU), Red Cat (RCAT), Five Below (FIVE) Thursday, March 19 Initial jobless claims at 8:30 a.m. ET New home sales at 10 a.m. ET Before the bell: Alibaba (BABA), Accenture (ACN), Canadian Solar (CSIQ), Darden (DRI), Lands’ End (LE), Signet (SIG) After the bell: FedEx (FDX) Friday, March 20 Before the bell: XPeng (XPEV) (Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust is long NVDA, AVGO and GLW. 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