Guojin Securities: Spring Festival Cultural and Tourism Activity Remains Steady with Prices Rising; Optimistic About the Recovery of High-End Consumption

Guojin Securities released a research report stating that the most certain consumption growth in 2026 will come from services, with cultural tourism being the most resilient sector within service consumption. The Spring Festival holiday has driven strong long-distance travel. We remain optimistic about the recovery of high-end consumption and recommend focusing on China Duty Free (01880). The recovery in prices and consumption upgrades in the social services industry are expected to provide long-term growth momentum.

Guojin Securities’ main points are as follows:

Event

Spring Festival consumption in 2026 continues the recovery trend seen during New Year’s Day, with steady volume growth and impressive price improvements. Business data shows that during the first four days of the holiday, the average daily sales of key retail and catering enterprises nationwide increased by 8.6% year-on-year, significantly higher than the 2.7% and 5.4% growth rates during the 2025 National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival.

Travel: The Spring Festival holiday drives vigorous long-distance travel, with a clear trend of “reverse holiday” among the elderly, and passenger flow growth is remarkable.

According to the Ministry of Transport, from February 16 to 21, 2026, the daily average cross-regional movement of people across society was 299 million, up 11.05% year-on-year compared to the same period in 2025. The total cross-regional movement reached 1.793 billion, an increase of 11.13%. The long-distance travel market remains highly active. Specifically, in the six days before the Spring Festival, railway, highway, waterway, and civil aviation transportation increased by 16.37%, 10.90%, 31.05%, and 9.45% respectively compared to the same period in 2025.

Tourism: Abundant passenger flow during the Spring Festival, with supply-side optimization at various scenic spots, leading to impressive revenue growth.

Zhangjiajie Huanglong Cave has integrated intangible cultural heritage and cave landscapes for an immersive experience; Three Gorges cruise ships combine traditional customs with scenic views of the Three Gorges; Huangshan Tourism leverages prize-winning invoice activities to turn external policies into consumption momentum. Revenue from Zhangjiajie Huanglong Cave, Zhangjiajie Bailong Elevator, Fenghuang Ancient Town, Qiyun Mountain in Anhui, and Bifengxia in Sichuan increased by 79%, 43%, 31%, 56%, and 27% respectively year-on-year. Revenue at Qiyun Mountain hit a record high, breaking historical single-day revenue records. Jiuhua Mountain Scenic Area operated near maximum capacity for three consecutive days. Songcheng Xi’an’s “Ancient Love” broke performance records in terms of show frequency.

Entry and Exit: Visa exemptions and policies to boost consumption continue to be optimized, with increased inbound and outbound travel during the Spring Festival holiday.

According to the National Immigration Administration, with ongoing improvements in visa exemption and consumption-boosting policies, inbound and outbound tourism during the Spring Festival holiday grew both ways. The daily average number of people entering and leaving at national ports exceeded 2.05 million, a 14.1% increase compared to the Spring Festival holiday in 2025, with a faster growth rate than the 9.5% in 2025.

Catering: Overall industry health is improving, price wars are easing, and leading brands are achieving record table-turnover rates.

Business data shows that during the first four days of the Spring Festival holiday, the average daily sales of key retail and catering enterprises nationwide increased by 8.6% year-on-year, outpacing the growth during the Mid-Autumn Festival and Spring Festival in 2025. Driven by “reverse reunion,” catering traffic in first-tier and popular cities is strong, with top brands seeing increased table-turnover rates. Haidilao’s nationwide stores achieved their highest table-turnover rate in nearly three years. Industry per-customer spending is steadily rising, with a clear easing of price competition, indicating a recovery in dining consumption.

Duty-Free: Spring Festival sales met expectations, with Sanya performing exceptionally well.

According to CCTV News, during the 2026 Spring Festival holiday, Haikou Customs supervised duty-free sales of 2.72 billion yuan, up 30.8% year-on-year; the number of items sold was 1.997 million, up 21.9%; and the number of shoppers reached 325,000, an increase of 35.4%. Sanya performed notably, with duty-free sales from February 1 to 22 reaching 3.549 billion yuan, up 29% year-on-year.

Hotels: The long holiday combined with “reverse” New Year celebrations drove performance beyond expectations.

According to Hotel Industry Data, from February 16 to 22, 2026 (from Lunar New Year’s Eve to the sixth day), the nationwide hotel RevPAR was 201.9 yuan, ADR was 330.8 yuan, and OCC was 61.1%. Compared to January 27 to February 2, 2025 (from the 28th to the fifth day), these figures increased by 30.7%, 13.5%, and 8.1 percentage points respectively. The “reverse” New Year travel mainly concentrated in first-tier and emerging first-tier cities, with higher quality demands. Coupled with the holiday and good weather, hotel performance exceeded expectations.

Risk Warning

Increased marketing investments in the industry, intensified competition after supply expansion, weather and natural disasters disruptions.