US Military Emergency! Over 10 KC-135 Aircraft Take Off! US Stocks Plummet Across the Board! India Hit First?

Breaking News!

On March 2nd, local time, according to open-source intelligence accounts, more than 10 U.S. Air Force KC-135 tankers have taken off from multiple bases within the United States, crossing the Atlantic and European airspace, possibly heading to the Middle East to participate in military operations against Iran. Currently, the U.S. military has not issued an official statement regarding this large-scale tanker deployment.

Trump stated that the operation was originally planned for 4-5 weeks but has the capacity to continue far beyond that. Secretary of State Pompeo said that “the most intense strikes are yet to come,” and the next phase will significantly increase efforts, focusing on destroying missile production, drones, and naval capabilities.

Additionally, with the international situation becoming more severe, pressure on oil prices has already been evident. Reuters reported, citing analysis, that if the Middle East conflict causes long-term disruptions to regional oil transportation, India will be the most vulnerable country to oil supply shocks due to its weak reserves.

In the stock market, in the afternoon Beijing time today, U.S. stock index futures declined across the board, with Nasdaq futures down over 1%, and S&P 500 and Dow futures falling about 0.8%.

Latest U.S. Military Actions

The U.S. may soon launch a new phase of aggressive strikes against Iran. According to the latest report from CCTV International, more than 10 U.S. Air Force KC-135 tankers have departed from multiple bases within the U.S., crossing the Atlantic and European airspace, possibly heading to the Middle East to participate in military operations against Iran.

Trump said the progress of the Iran operation has “far exceeded expectations,” but “regardless of how long it takes or what costs are involved,” the U.S. will continue the operation. The government expects the operation to last “4-5 weeks,” but “has the capacity to extend far beyond this period.” Secretary of State Pompeo stated that “the most intense strikes are yet to come,” and the next phase will greatly intensify efforts, focusing on destroying missile production, drones, and naval capabilities. The Pentagon emphasized that objectives can be achieved without ground troops, but Trump has not ruled out deploying ground forces if necessary.

Central Command (CENTCOM) confirmed that six U.S. soldiers have been killed (initial reports: 3 dead, 5 seriously injured; later, two missing soldiers’ bodies were found after an attack in Kuwait; another soldier died from wounds). Additionally, reports indicate that several U.S. aircraft were shot down or crashed in Kuwait by friendly fire (3 F-16s or similar, pilots survived). Iran’s missile and drone attacks on U.S. bases in the Middle East (Kuwait, Bahrain, etc.) have caused these casualties. So far, the U.S. has significantly increased troop deployments to the Middle East, including the deployment of two aircraft carriers (Ford and Lincoln), more fighter jets, tankers, and troops. Some bases have heightened security, and the State Department has urged U.S. citizens to leave the Middle East immediately.

On March 3rd, local time, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard announced that at dawn, they launched a large-scale drone and missile attack targeting U.S. Air Force bases in Sheikh Eisa, Bahrain. During the attack, 20 drones and 3 missiles struck the targets, destroying the U.S. Air Force regional command building, igniting fuel depots, and causing flames and thick smoke.

Oil Pressure Continues to Rise

The situation remains severe, and pressure on oil prices continues to mount. According to Xinhua News Agency, due to the spillover risks of U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran affecting international shipping, several maritime insurers announced on March 2nd that they will cancel war risk coverage for ships operating in the Gulf region starting March 5th. This move will further restrict ships from passing through the Gulf area.

The UK’s The Guardian reported that several major maritime insurers based in the UK, Norway, and the U.S. announced that from March 5th, war risk coverage in Iranian waters, the Gulf, and nearby waters will be canceled. War risk insurance typically covers losses and damages caused by war and terrorism.

Reuters cited analysis indicating that if the Middle East conflict causes long-term disruptions to regional oil transportation, India will be the most vulnerable to oil supply shocks due to its weak reserves.

Analysis shows that about 55% of India’s total oil imports come from the Middle East, with an average daily import of 2.74 million barrels, the highest since late 2022, as Indian refineries reduce Russian crude oil purchases under U.S. pressure. Last month, India’s Petroleum Minister told Parliament that the country’s oil and fuel reserves are only enough to last 74 days. However, sources in the refining industry told Reuters that India’s current stockpiles can only support 20 to 25 days.

Nearly 90% of Asia’s Middle Eastern oil exports are imported by Japan and South Korea, relying on about 95% and 70% of their oil from the Middle East, respectively. However, their oil reserves can sustain approximately 254 days and 208 days, respectively.

U.S. Secretary of State Pompeo stated that the U.S. Treasury Department and Department of Energy will announce measures on March 3rd to ease rising energy prices.