China Continues to Lead! Hamburg Port, Germany's Largest Harbor, to Keep "Looking East" in 2025, Limited Impact from Middle East Situation?

As Germany’s largest port, Hamburg Harbor has released its 2025 performance report: it shows warmth from the East as well as a chill from the Atlantic.

The latest data from the Hamburg Port Marketing Association indicates that, as Germany’s largest comprehensive maritime hub, Hamburg’s total maritime cargo volume reached 114.6 million tons in 2025, a 2.6% increase from the previous year.

A significant rebound in container traffic is the key driver of this growth. In 2025, Hamburg’s container volume reached 8.3 million TEUs, a 7.3% increase year-over-year; by weight, container volume grew by 4.6%. Quarterly volumes were significantly higher than the same periods last year.

Container throughput from China increased by 6.5%

“China once again became the main driver of this growth,” said Axel Mattern, CEO of the Hamburg Port Marketing Association, to First Financial. The data shows that last year, Hamburg’s container throughput from China increased by 6.5%. “In terms of imports, there was a notable rise in machinery, machine tools, metal products, and electronic products from China, highlighting Hamburg’s important role as a gateway to Europe’s industrial supply chain,” he said.

For years, even amid global trade uncertainties, China has remained Hamburg’s largest trading partner. According to the latest foreign trade data from the German Federal Statistical Office, in January this year, Germany’s total trade with China was about €20.5 billion, with China still Germany’s largest import source, and Germany’s trade deficit with China at €7.9 billion.

Last year, China again became Germany’s most important trading partner. German data shows that in 2025, Germany’s imports from China totaled €170.6 billion, maintaining its position as Germany’s top source of imports. The main Chinese goods include data processing equipment, electrical and optical products, electrical equipment, and various machinery.

In early March, Chinese companies further expanded their port investments in Germany. The German Federal Cartel Office approved the acquisition of an 80% stake in Hamburg freight forwarding company Konrad Zippel by China COSCO Shipping Group (COSCO). Zippel is a family-owned business with nearly 150 years of history, specializing in intermodal container transport between ports and inland, especially via rail, and holds an important position in Germany’s logistics industry. This is not COSCO’s first investment in German port assets. Currently, COSCO owns a minority stake of 24.99% in CTT Terminal, part of Hamburg Hafen und Logistik AG (HHLA).

Meanwhile, China State Shipbuilding Wuhan Ship Machinery and West Heavy Machinery recently won a contract to supply bulk remote-controlled quay cranes at Hamburg port, supporting the port’s smart upgrade and capacity expansion.

Container throughput to the U.S. decreased by 25%

Apart from China, other Asian countries performed notably. Data from the Hamburg Port Marketing Association shows that last year, Hamburg’s freight volume to Malaysia increased by 84.3%, and to India by 49.2%. “The Asian market’s performance demonstrates Hamburg’s diversification of intra-Asian freight and its focus on emerging markets,” said Mattern.

Compared to the vibrant Asian markets, Hamburg’s container throughput to the U.S. declined sharply by 25.6% in 2025, influenced by a series of U.S. tariff policies and other factors.

Regarding the shift of Hamburg’s main trading partners “rising in the East and declining in the West,” Mattern told First Financial that the long-term positive development conditions and trends for Hamburg remain, especially regarding routes related to Asia. However, he emphasized that the continuation of this positive trend largely depends on global demand dynamics, trade policy developments, and potential geopolitical changes or route disruptions.

As for transatlantic trade, Mattern believes that although the decline in 2025 clearly reflects the impact of trade policy changes, the medium-term outlook remains optimistic. “With a more predictable policy environment, trade across the Atlantic is expected to gradually stabilize and regain momentum. The global supply chain has repeatedly demonstrated resilience and flexibility. The structural importance of transatlantic trade remains strong.” He also analyzed, “Of course, future developments are highly sensitive to external influences. Tariff policies, fluctuations in consumer demand, inventory cycles, and carriers’ strategic decisions will all significantly impact the scale of transatlantic trade.”

Views on the impact of Middle East tensions

Currently, escalating tensions in the Middle East have become the biggest “black swan” for the global shipping industry at the start of the year. With ongoing risks in the Strait of Hormuz and surrounding waters, the effects are spreading from shipping to trade and contract execution.

Data from the Hamburg Port Marketing Association shows that trade between the Red Sea and Persian Gulf has a certain but not dominant impact on Hamburg’s freight volume. In terms of container throughput, in 2025, Hamburg’s container volume with this region was 181,000 TEUs, accounting for less than 2.2% of Hamburg’s total container throughput. Including Israel (46,000 TEUs), the share is 2.7%. However, the region plays a prominent role in Hamburg’s regular liner service network, with about 100 liner services, 10 of which serve the Red Sea/Persian Gulf shipping area.

Mattern analyzed that, in terms of freight volume, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz caused by Middle East tensions has limited impact on Hamburg port. Operations at Hamburg’s terminals remain smooth and stable. The direct container share from affected regions accounts for only 2%–3% of Hamburg’s total, unlikely to cause a structural decline in overall throughput.

He emphasized that in the short term, there are indirect effects: rising energy prices, increased fuel and insurance costs, route adjustments, longer transit times, and capacity shifts in global liner services. In the long run, ongoing geopolitical conflicts could have lasting impacts on global shipping routes and supply chains. For example, shipping companies may avoid or hedge high-risk bottlenecks, leading to increased diversification of trade and further expansion of procurement strategies by enterprises. “All of this means increased volatility and costs in supply chains,” he concluded.

(This article is from First Financial)