National Corn Continues Upward Trend; Downstream Sentiment Resistance Suppresses Transactions

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Senior Analyst Zou Jun from Zhuochuang Information on the Corn Market

[Introduction] In early March 2026, the national corn market continued its strong trend, with futures and spot prices moving in tandem, and the average price nationwide surpassing 2,320 yuan/ton. However, despite high prices, concerns are emerging as the market shifts from a single-sided rally to a complex high-level game of “tight supply and weak demand.”

In early March, the national corn market maintained its upward momentum, showing signs of futures and spot price linkage. As of March 10, the average price nationwide was 2,324.86 yuan/ton, up 48.32 yuan/ton from February 28’s 2,276.54 yuan/ton, a 2.12% increase. Regionally, North China was affected by frequent rain and snow, with deep-processing deliveries remaining low. Companies raised prices frequently to secure grain sources, driving local prices higher. Northeast China, although slower than previous years in grain sales, still showed reluctance among farmers to sell, coupled with unseasonably warm temperatures, which kept selling pressure subdued. Meanwhile, local deep-processing plants faced inventory shortages, forcing purchase prices higher. The futures market also performed well, with the main 2605 contract reaching a high of 2,443 yuan/ton on March 9, setting a new peak since listing, before closing at 2,395 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton from February 27’s close, a 1.48% increase.

This round of price increases is the result of multiple factors. On the supply side, residual grain in the fields is growing slowly—grain sales in North and Northeast China are behind last year’s pace, with farmers holding onto their stocks. Market supply growth is limited. Additionally, weather disruptions caused by rain and snow in northern regions temporarily hinder logistics, further tightening supply. On the demand side, deep-processing utilization rates are rising, with companies eager to replenish stocks, raising purchase prices to ensure production. International factors also contributed, with futures contracts breaking through 2,400 yuan/ton, boosting market sentiment.

As corn prices continue to rise, downstream companies show resistance, and transactions slow down. For feed producers, ongoing losses in pig farming—deepening for four consecutive weeks—along with the traditional off-season for feed consumption, reduce their willingness to buy high-priced corn. Most companies are mainly using existing inventories or making necessary purchases. Some feed companies are turning to alternatives like wheat and barley to cut costs. Although deep-processing firms need to replenish stocks, rising corn prices squeeze profit margins, dampening their purchasing enthusiasm.

In the short term, corn prices may face some correction pressure but are expected to remain generally stable or slightly firm. As temperatures rise, farmers’ storage conditions worsen, likely increasing the volume of grain on the market. Policy-driven grain releases and the approaching import replacement shipments may also boost supply. Meanwhile, as grain moves from farms to end-users, inventory levels in middle trading links will rise, intensifying competition among traders, especially across regions. However, since overall corn supply remains tight and deep-processing demand for replenishment is still unmet, a sharp decline in prices in the near term is unlikely.

It is expected that in mid to late March, the national corn prices will be influenced by the release of farm-level selling pressure and trade replenishment. Under low demand and low profit margins, market sentiment will fluctuate, and prices may stabilize after a period of rising. If futures prices continue to weaken, it could negatively impact spot market sentiment, leading to localized high quotes and lower transaction prices, with the national average possibly dropping below 2,300 yuan/ton. After March, as farm-level selling pressure in Northeast China eases and supply costs stabilize, combined with rigid downstream demand and cost accumulation, prices nationwide may gradually rise again, with the average around 2,290 yuan/ton, an increase of about 30 yuan/ton year-on-year compared to February.

In summary, the current national corn market is in a complex state of balancing supply and demand, policy influences, and market dynamics. Going forward, close attention should be paid to weather changes, policy adjustments, and downstream demand recovery to better grasp the market trend.