【Alibaba Results】Alibaba to Release Results on Thursday; Brokers Expect Adjusted Net Profit to Fall 42%

SocialAnxietyStaker · 2026-03-15T16:50:32+00:00

Alibaba will announce its third-quarter results on Thursday, with projected revenue of approximately 289.8 billion yuan, up 3% year-over-year, but adjusted net profit is expected to decline 42%. Core e-commerce growth has slowed due to macroeconomic impacts, while cloud business and AI are predicted to be bright spots, with cloud revenue growing 33% year-over-year. Various business segments may increase losses due to increased AI investments.

SocialAnxietyStaker

2026-03-15 16:50:32

Abstract generation in progress

Alibaba (09988) will announce its fiscal third-quarter results on Thursday. According to consensus forecasts from brokerage firms, revenue for October to December 2025 is expected to reach 289.8 billion yuan (RMB), a 3% year-over-year increase. Adjusted net profit is projected at 29.58 billion yuan, down 42%. Huatai Securities predicts that the core e-commerce segment will experience operational deleverage due to weak GMV performance, potentially leading to a decline in net profit (excluding instant retail and food delivery businesses). Additionally, the group’s extra investments in large models and AI applications across various business lines may further constrain overall profitability.

JPMorgan reports that Alibaba’s core e-commerce growth is slowing due to a weak macro consumer environment. It expects the core Customer Management Revenue (CMR) to grow at only 1% year-over-year in Q3, down from 10% in the previous quarter. This slowdown is expected to drag EBITA (Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization) for Taobao/Tmall Group (excluding fast commerce) down by 8%. Local life services are anticipated to reduce subsidies, with fast commerce losses expected to decrease from 35 billion yuan in Q3 to 21 billion yuan. However, due to management’s “market share first” strategy, reaching breakeven will proceed at a slower pace.

JPMorgan expects cloud and AI businesses to be the biggest highlights. It forecasts that cloud intelligence group revenue will accelerate from 34% growth in Q2 to 37%. As “generative AI” workloads shift from pilot projects to broader deployment, cloud revenue growth is expected to continue accelerating over the coming quarters, demonstrating Alibaba’s strength in capturing China’s AI demand.

Market consensus projects cloud revenue at 42.36 billion yuan, a 33% year-over-year increase.

CICC also remains optimistic about cloud and AI businesses, believing they could offset the impact of slowing CMR growth amid macro headwinds. It forecasts Alibaba Cloud revenue to grow by 36%, driven mainly by internal business penetration and strong external customer demand. However, due to ongoing investments in AI fields (such as Tongyi Qianwen app, Amap, Quark AI glasses, etc.), losses in other business segments are expected to expand to 6.8 billion yuan.

Mizuho Securities states that Alibaba possesses China’s most valuable cloud assets, positioning it well to capitalize on the strong market demand for AI.

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