Novo Nordisk Expands Production: Weight Loss Market Competition Shifts from Injections to Oral Medications as Industry Giants Enter Second Half of Battle

21st Century Business Herald Reporter Ji Yuanyuan

Faced with the countdown to patent cliffs and the fierce pursuit by latecomers, Danish pharmaceutical giant Novo Nordisk is fighting an unprecedented “defense battle.”

On March 2, Novo Nordisk announced a major strategic move: investing €432 million (about 3.2 billion Danish kroner) to expand its manufacturing facility in Aslone, Ireland, aiming to significantly increase production capacity for oral GLP-1 therapies. Public information shows the project covers 45 acres (18 hectares) and will create up to 500 construction jobs. The construction has already begun and is expected to be completed gradually between late 2027 and 2028.

Novo Nordisk’s press release states that this investment marks an important strategic milestone in the company’s development, further consolidating its long-term commitment to Ireland and global medical innovation. It will provide additional capacity for oral product manufacturing, strengthen supply, and make Ireland a key hub serving markets outside the U.S. The investment will be used to upgrade existing facilities and enhance Novo Nordisk’s production capacity for oral GLP-1 therapies.

This seemingly routine capacity expansion occurs at a very delicate time. Over the past month, amid intense competition from Eli Lilly’s tirzepatide injection and the underwhelming clinical data of the next-generation drug CagriSema, this increase in oral formulation capacity is undoubtedly a key move by Novo Nordisk to reshape competitive barriers in the “post-injection era.”

A pharmaceutical industry analyst at a securities firm told 21st Century Business Herald that the market competition in the second half of the GLP-1 era is a “big gamble” on “oral” options, and this is also Novo Nordisk’s “turnaround.” “This investment clearly aims to boost oral product manufacturing capacity and plans to make Ireland a core hub serving markets outside the U.S. This fully demonstrates that the company is trying to ‘stockpile’ resources to cope with the short-term pressure from ‘clinical data challenges’ and to support its market penetration of oral products through stable global supply.”

Breaking Through the Patent Cliff

Why is Novo Nordisk doubling down on oral formulations at this moment?

The most direct driver comes from market realities. For example, in China, the world’s most dynamic weight-loss market, the core patent for Novo Nordisk’s semaglutide expires in March 2026. Domestic companies like Jiyuan Gene, Livzon Group (000513), Huadong Medicine (000963), and Qilu Pharmaceutical are flooding the market with generics, sparking a price war. Industry experts widely expect weight-loss drugs to enter a “cabbage price” era soon.

Faced with the crackdown from biosimilar drugs, Novo Nordisk must accelerate growth through “innovative formulations.” Oral GLP-1 drugs, compared to injections, have higher patient adherence barriers and are a key moat against generic competition. Although Novo Nordisk’s oral semaglutide (Rybelsus) is already on the market, its bioavailability is limited by strict fasting requirements. The next-generation oral products are competing around “freeing from dietary restrictions.”

In the pharmaceutical industry, capacity equals influence. Novo Nordisk’s expansion of its Irish plant is not only to meet rising demand but also a direct response to competition.

Ireland is a global hub for pharmaceuticals, with nine of the top ten pharmaceutical companies having operations there. In 2024, Eli Lilly announced a $1 billion expansion of its existing plant in Limerick, Ireland, and an $800 million investment to build new facilities in Kinsale, County Cork, to meet demand for its star drugs Mounjaro and Zepbound. Novo Nordisk’s investment will also provide additional oral product capacity, strengthen supply, and make Ireland a key hub serving markets outside the U.S.

The analyst mentioned earlier pointed out that Ireland’s investment is a positive signal, indicating the company’s increased focus on oral therapies. Compared to injectables, the core advantage of oral GLP-1 is accessibility revolution: no cold chain needed, patients can self-administer, greatly reducing healthcare system burdens; at the same time, oral formulations are easier to penetrate self-pay and DTC (direct-to-consumer) channels, aligning with the “consumerization” trend in weight-loss drugs. The process development for oral formulations is simpler, with stronger cost control, and once safety and efficacy are confirmed, it will impact the market competition landscape.

Industry insiders estimate that by the 2030s, the market value of GLP-1 drugs could reach nearly $100 billion. Previously, Goldman Sachs analysts predicted that by 2030, oral weight-loss drugs could account for about 24% of the global weight-loss drug market, roughly $22 billion.

Future Battlegrounds

Through Novo Nordisk’s investment in Ireland, three core competitive points in the second half of the GLP-1 track are becoming clear.

First is the ultimate competition for adherence. Whether it’s Novo Nordisk’s oral tablet expansion, Eli Lilly’s unrestricted oral small molecule, or Chinese companies like ZhiTi Biological developing the world’s first once-monthly GLP-1 formulation (ZT002), all point toward the same goal: extending dosing intervals and simplifying administration.

According to CIC, by 2035, GLP-1 monthly formulations are expected to account for about 26% of the global $209.5 billion GLP-1 market.

Second is multi-target and differentiated layout. Single-target GLP-1 has entered a red ocean. ZhiTi Biological is developing a GLP-1/FGF21 dual-agonist; Eli Lilly’s tirzepatide (GIP/GLP-1 dual-target) has shown superior efficacy to semaglutide. If Novo Nordisk cannot demonstrate the unique value of CagriSema (an incretin mimetic + GLP-1), it will be at a disadvantage in the multi-target competition.

Third is the strategic layout of global supply chain hubs. Drug supply is no longer just about capacity but also involves geopolitical, cost-efficiency, and market access considerations. Novo Nordisk’s clear focus on Ireland as a core hub for markets outside the U.S. leverages regional policy advantages and talent reserves to build a resilient global supply chain.

Looking at the Chinese market, this global capacity race is even more instructive. In March this year, the core patent for semaglutide in China expired, and more than ten domestic companies are preparing biosimilar drugs. For example, Hangzhou Jiyuan Gene announced that its biosimilar for semaglutide (for weight management in overweight or obese people), Gikoxin, has received acceptance from the National Medical Products Administration (NMPA). Additionally, MorphoMed reports that the NMPA has accepted 11 domestic semaglutide applications, with companies like Chia Tai Tianqing, Fosun, Chengdu Betta, CSPC, China East Pharma, and Qilu Pharmaceutical already in queue. Several other companies are at different clinical stages, with various formulations such as injections, inhalers, subcutaneous injections, and tablets. A second wave of submissions is expected from late 2026 to 2027, likely triggering a price war.

At this moment, Novo Nordisk’s aggressive overseas capacity expansion aims both to prepare for the upcoming global “price storm” and to build barriers. “For domestic manufacturers, this is not only a race to win the domestic market but also a deep test of whether they can integrate into the international mainstream supply chain. Without establishing a globalized production and supply system like Novo Nordisk, even winning the price war domestically will make it difficult to gain a share in the global market,” the analyst emphasized.

With the factory in Ireland about to start construction, the outcome of the GLP-1 throne defense may be decided even before the plant is completed.