Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs: National Pork Prices Showed a Downward Trend in March

(Source: Pig Head)

According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, during the first week of March, the national pork price was 23.04 yuan per kilogram, down 2.1% from the previous week, marking four consecutive weeks of month-on-month decline. The nationwide live pig price was 11.89 yuan per kilogram, down 4.5% from the previous week, with five consecutive weeks of decline.

Researcher Zhu Zengyong from the Institute of Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Medicine at the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences said, “After the holiday, terminal consumption quickly enters the off-season, coupled with ample pig supply, resulting in strong supply and weak demand.”

Experts indicate that currently, the country’s pig production capacity continues the trend of reducing breeding sows observed in the fourth quarter of last year. In the short term, supply pressure is unlikely to be fully alleviated. Pork prices are likely to remain at a relatively low level in the first half of the year, with supply and demand gradually improving in the second half.

At the pig meat trading hall of Beijing Xinfadi Wholesale Market, merchants told reporters that since the Spring Festival, pork prices here have generally been declining. Xinfadi merchant Huang Yongfang said, “Before the holiday, we sold over 100 slices a day; now it’s only about 70.” Another merchant added, “Prices are cheaper than before the holiday, about 1 yuan less per jin.”

Data shows that on March 12, the average price of white strip pigs at Beijing Xinfadi Market was 13.15 yuan per kilogram, a 14.6% decrease from February 12. This is mainly due to increased demand related to the Spring Festival in February, which boosted sales. Currently, market supply remains ample. Merchants said, “Supply is sufficient, slaughterhouse prices for white strip pigs are definitely lower, and prices will fall.”

Liu Tong, an analyst at Beijing Xinfadi Market, stated, “With ample supply and relatively flat demand, pork prices are basically maintaining the current state with slight fluctuations.”

1. The overall national pig market continues to operate weakly

Looking at major production areas across the country, the downward trend in pig prices in the first half of March has not shown a clear reversal. Over 90% of provinces maintain weak prices, with traditional pig-producing regions like Northeast and North China generally at low levels, some areas dropping below 11 yuan per kilogram. Although prices in East and Central China are relatively higher, they also remain weak. The performance of terminal consumer markets is consistent with Beijing Xinfadi, as household consumption and catering procurement enter the normal off-season after the Spring Festival. The overall pace of pig sales has slowed, slaughter enterprises are less willing to purchase, further transmitting downward pressure to upstream breeders, intensifying the decline in pig prices.

Regarding slaughter pace, affected by the Spring Festival holiday in February, many breeding entities did not complete their slaughter plans, with some pigs not slaughtered being postponed to March for sale. Industry monitoring data shows that in February, the completion rate of pig slaughter plans among sampled breeding enterprises was less than 94%. In March, the number of pig slaughter plans among domestic sampled breeding enterprises increased by 22.54% compared to February. This temporary increase in supply has further added pressure to the market, which is one of the core reasons for the ongoing downward trend in pig prices.

2. Capacity reduction continues, market expectations are gradually clear

Corresponding to the ample supply of pigs is the ongoing reduction in breeding sow capacity. Industry monitoring data shows that in March, the number of breeding sows in China continued the downward trend since the fourth quarter of last year. Under the sluggish market conditions, farmers are more inclined to cull low-yield and aging sows, while the replenishment of replacement gilts has slowed overall. Large-scale breeding enterprises are mainly optimizing herd structure, and the process of capacity reduction is steadily advancing.

Previously, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held meetings that clearly signaled capacity regulation, further clarifying the target for the reasonable holding of breeding sows and guiding the industry to adjust capacity structure steadily and orderly. This aligns with industry experts’ forecasts that adjustments in pig production capacity follow a fixed transmission cycle. As the current reduction in breeding sows gradually impacts pig supply, the supply and demand relationship in the market is expected to gradually recover, laying the foundation for a future market rebound.

From the current market situation, in the short term, the fundamental scenario of strong supply and weak demand in the pig market is unlikely to change fundamentally. Pork prices are likely to remain at low levels with oscillations. However, as capacity reduction continues and seasonal consumer demand recovers in the second half of the year, the supply and demand pattern is expected to improve gradually, and the entire industry will gradually return to a reasonable range in a steady manner.