Galaxy Futures: Supply Disruptions Create Headwinds, Will Lithium Carbonate Prices Rise Easily but Fall with Difficulty?

The Zimbabwe government announced yesterday that all unprocessed mineral and lithium concentrate exports are to be suspended immediately, with the lifting date to be determined by further government notice. Mines that meet the requirements and pass the approval process can export normally, but illegal exports will be cracked down on. Compliant exports will be delayed, illegal ones will be banned, and short-term Zimbabwe exports are expected to decrease significantly. On the demand side, energy storage is optimistic at the start of the year, with resilient momentum. Downstream replenishment is strong after the holiday, but upstream and traders’ inventories are tight. In the short term, market sentiment is optimistic, lithium prices are more likely to rise than fall, and today’s opening is likely to be significantly higher. Long positions at low levels are held with a target of at least new highs. However, under strict regulatory conditions, lithium carbonate liquidity is insufficient, leading to high volatility. Caution is advised for light positions. (Galaxy Futures)