"Could the Next Two Years Be the Hottest Years in History"? Expert Interpretation →

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“Earth may experience a super El Niño phenomenon”

“2023 and 2024 could be the hottest years in history”

These topics have trended on social media, attracting widespread attention.

Multiple media outlets report that several global research institutions predict a strong El Niño may occur later this year, disrupting the global climate. This could not only trigger extreme heat, floods, and droughts but also further raise global temperatures, potentially pushing summer temperatures to record highs this year and next.

In response to public concern, experts from the National Climate Center have provided insights.

Expert Analysis: It’s too early to definitively say there will be a “super El Niño”

Based on the latest monitoring data and predictions from various climate models domestically and internationally, the La Niña phase is nearing its end, and a neutral state is expected to follow. The tropical central and eastern Pacific Ocean temperatures are expected to continue rising, and by late spring, an El Niño condition may develop.

Liu Yunyun, director of the Climate Prediction Office at the National Climate Center, explained that historically, about one-third of La Niña events are followed by El Niño within the same year. Different climate models worldwide predict varying timings for the onset of El Niño, with the earliest possibly in April and the latest in late summer or early fall. These predictions vary significantly.

For example: The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts predicts April; Australia forecasts May; Japan Meteorological Agency predicts June; U.S. experts’ voting suggests July to September.

Overall, the likelihood of an El Niño developing in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean in the second half of this year is high, but it is still too early to accurately predict its exact timing and overall strength. Currently, predictions from multiple international climate models show significant discrepancies, and no consensus has been reached. Therefore, it is premature to conclude that a “super El Niño” will occur this year.

Expert Advice: Rationally interpret climate forecast information

Chen Lijuan, chief expert of the Climate Prediction Office at the National Climate Center, pointed out that El Niño events are often accompanied by an increase in global average temperatures. However, the specific temperature rise and extreme weather manifestations depend on the strength, type, and regional climate response of each El Niño, which requires ongoing monitoring and assessment.

In the context of frequent extreme weather and climate events, there is a vast amount of information circulating. Currently, discussions on topics like “hottest year” and “extreme weather” are lively on social media, but some information may be exaggerated or taken out of context. Experts advise the public to:

• Rationally view forecast information, recognizing the uncertainty inherent in climate predictions, especially regarding the exact timing, strength, and regional impacts of El Niño, which require dynamic monitoring and prediction;

• Pay attention to real-time updates from authoritative agencies rather than single, extreme statements at specific moments;

• Stay alert to weather warnings in advance, prepare appropriate measures, and ensure that agricultural activities are planned reasonably. Urban management should strengthen the resilience of infrastructure such as power supply, water supply, and transportation.

●Source: China Meteorological Administration, National Climate Center

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Editor: Jiang Luyao