Pouring Oil on the Fire! Trump Denies Ceasefire Possibility, International Oil Prices Continue to Rise, Brent Crude Closes Above $112

The latest statement from U.S. President Trump further dampened market expectations of a ceasefire in the near term. Coupled with escalating energy supply risks, international oil prices surged strongly, and concerns about future oil prices and inflation prospects continued to rise.

According to Cailian Finance APP, Trump explicitly stated to the media at the White House on Friday that he “has no intention of reaching a ceasefire agreement with Iran,” emphasizing that current military operations will continue. “We can talk, but we will not cease fire,” he said. “When you are suppressing the other side, you don’t choose to cease fire.” He also claimed that Iran “no longer has effective military capabilities” and stated that the U.S. has “already achieved victory” militarily.

This tough stance comes nearly three weeks after the outbreak of conflict and indicates that the situation is unlikely to ease in the short term. Previously, Trump had said the U.S. could “end the war immediately,” but still chose to continue military actions. He also criticized NATO allies for not actively participating in ensuring the security of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and called on other countries, including Japan, to provide support.

As geopolitical risks continue to ferment, energy market volatility has intensified. On Friday, international oil prices rose significantly, with Brent crude up 3.3% to $112.19 per barrel, marking the fifth consecutive week of gains with a weekly increase of 8.8%. U.S. WTI April contracts closed up 2.3% at $98.32 per barrel, but due to contract rollover effects, the week saw a slight decline of 0.4%.

Analysts pointed out that Trump’s recent increasingly tough rhetoric has heightened market expectations of further escalation of the conflict, possibly even ground military operations. The market generally believes that, given the tense situation in the Strait of Hormuz, the risk of energy supply disruptions has risen sharply, becoming a core factor driving oil prices higher.

Institutional views indicate that the market has begun to price in more extreme scenarios. Some analysts suggest that if the conflict further escalates, Brent crude could rise toward $130; in the most pessimistic scenario, if the U.S. conducts ground military operations and the conflict lasts for several months, oil prices could even reach the $150 to $180 range.

Meanwhile, attacks on energy infrastructure have also heightened supply concerns. Iran previously attacked Qatar’s Ras Laffan Industrial City, reducing its liquefied natural gas capacity by about 17%, with repair times potentially lasting years; Israel launched strikes on Iran’s South Pars gas field, further disrupting the global energy supply landscape.

Although some signs suggest room for de-escalation—such as Israel indicating it will temporarily halt further attacks on Iranian gas fields—the overall market is still reassessing the sustainability of energy shocks and their impact on the global economy. Institutional analysis indicates that the probability of severe supply disruptions priced into the market has risen from 25% a week ago to about 50%.

Against the backdrop of persistently high oil prices, concerns about rising inflation and tightening monetary policy are intensifying. Analysts believe that if energy prices remain elevated for an extended period, central banks may be forced to reconsider their rate hike paths, increasing the likelihood of “tail risks” for the global economy.