Second-hand housing heat rises, transactions pick up - a "small spring" is expected in first-tier cities

Source: 21st Century Business Herald Author: Wu Shuying

The peak season for real estate transactions, “Golden March and Silver April,” has arrived as expected.

Last Saturday (March 14), Shanghai set a new high for the year with 1,472 daily online signings of second-hand homes; Beijing’s housing market saw month-on-month growth in both new and second-hand home transactions driven by policy incentives; Guangzhou experienced active viewing and transaction volumes for second-hand homes; Shenzhen also saw a significant increase in second-hand home transactions in the first half of March.

Every year in March and April, the real estate market reaches a critical point. Since the beginning of the year usually coincides with the Spring Festival, housing demand is deferred; additionally, demand for school district homes typically releases in March and April, driving overall market transactions higher. As a result, market attention is especially focused on these two months, which are crucial for the annual market trend.

This year’s “Golden March and Silver April” is even more distinctive. The real estate market has been rational for several years, and the public is particularly hopeful that this year’s “small spring” can achieve both volume and price increases, leading the market into a new development cycle. Multiple interviews and research by 21st Century Business Herald reveal that transaction volumes in first-tier cities are clearly rebounding month-on-month, while prices remain relatively stable. Analysts suggest that under policy stimulation, demand in Beijing and Shanghai is being released in clusters, making this year’s “small spring” optimistic for transaction volume; Guangzhou and Shenzhen also show bright spots, with an overall recovery trend expected.

Transaction volume is rising in first-tier cities, prices are stable, and the overall national real estate market is showing a good start.

“Small Spring” Arrives

Shanghai is the most prominent city in this round of “small spring.”

According to CRIC, from March 9 to March 15, Shanghai’s second-hand housing market experienced explosive growth, with weekly transactions reaching 7,233 units, the highest in nearly five years (since 2021).

Data from Shanghai Online Real Estate show that on March 18, the daily transaction volume of second-hand homes reached 906 units on a working day, remaining at a high level.

The recent “hot” sales in Shanghai are driven by new policies. On February 25, Shanghai issued the “Notice on Further Optimizing and Adjusting the City’s Real Estate Policies,” introducing seven measures to stabilize the market, including shortening social security contribution periods for non-Hukou residents, relaxing housing purchase qualifications with a residence permit, and increasing maximum housing loan amounts—collectively known as the “Shanghai Seven Policies.”

A national real estate company’s Shanghai client research manager told 21st Century Business Herald that each new policy in recent years has prompted some demand to enter the market early. This time, combined with the “Golden March and Silver April” season, the overall market performance has seen a surge in transaction volume, with prices remaining stable and no significant decline. “From the data we’ve observed, since December last year, Shanghai’s second-hand home prices have not further fallen and remain quite resilient, which is a positive signal.”

Beijing’s policies from December last year are still influencing the market. According to 58 Anju Research Institute, after the Spring Festival, with offline sales offices and agent stores fully reopening, housing search enthusiasm rebounded rapidly. On February 28, Beijing’s new home market heat index rose to 60.3, and second-hand homes to 66.1; by March 14, these figures further increased to 59.9 and 65.6, respectively, indicating continued policy-driven momentum.

In terms of transaction volume, from January 26 to February 1, Beijing recorded 4,244 units sold that week, the highest in 12 weeks, up over 30% compared to the previous week before the new policies. The market gradually recovered after the Spring Festival, with 2,980 units sold in the week of March 1-8.

Unlike Beijing and Shanghai, where new policies are boosting the market, Guangzhou and Shenzhen are experiencing a rebound driven purely by rigid housing demand.

Public reports show that in the first two weeks of March, Guangzhou’s second-hand home online signings exceeded 4,000 units, with a single-day high of 271 units on March 15, the highest since 2023.

A real estate agent in Tianhe District, Guangzhou, told 21st Century Business Herald, “I’ve been very busy lately, showing homes, meeting clients, signing contracts every day. Now, you have to queue at signing centers, which is different from the end of last year. Our agency has already closed 9 deals this month.”

Shenzhen’s data is also very straightforward: according to monitoring data from Shenzhen Centaline Research Center, by March 18, the total transactions of first- and second-hand residential properties in Shenzhen exceeded 4,000 units. Among them, new homes totaled 1,474 units, a 38.9% increase from February; second-hand homes transferred totaled 2,715 units, up 58.6% from February.

The Shenzhen Centaline Research Center notes that after the Spring Festival, Shenzhen’s market has continued to rebound, with a clear increase in buyer willingness. Many projects are offering discounts and promotions, which have been effective; second-hand transactions are also quickly warming up, signaling that the “small spring” has arrived.

Signals Need Strengthening

While transaction volumes are rising and prices remain stable, second-hand homeowners are showing a “hold” mentality.

According to information from multiple agencies in Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen, second-hand homeowners are relatively firm on prices, with limited room for negotiation. “Earlier, most cost-effective second-hand homes have been sold. Since the Spring Festival, it’s hard to negotiate prices because homeowners see the market improving and prefer not to lower prices—they’d rather rent out. So, prices are generally stable, but if prices loosen, sales will pick up quickly,” a Shenzhen Nanshan agent told 21st Century Business Herald.

On the primary market side, developers are still adopting a “price to sell” strategy. A marketing executive from a company focused on East China told 21st Century Business Herald that while second-hand volumes are increasing and prices are stable, the “signal to start” in the new home market remains uncertain.

According to the data provided by this executive, most new home prices in Shanghai and surrounding cities have declined this month, mainly due to developers’ “price to sell” tactics and shifts in transaction structures.

“Last month, a competitor’s project nearby was priced at 85% of ours, several thousand yuan per square meter cheaper. They moved units quickly, while we hardly made any sales,” said a South China-based developer.

This divergence in sentiment is also reflected in the land market.

For example, in Shanghai, on March 13, the first batch of residential land for 2026 was auctioned, with three plots located in Jiading New Town, Xuhui Changqiao, and Qingpu Xihongqiao, totaling about 198,300 square meters of buildable land, with a total transaction value of approximately 6.809 billion yuan. Except for the Qingpu plot, which sold at a 6.6% premium, the other two were sold at base price.

This indicates that, despite current market enthusiasm, developers remain cautious in land acquisitions. Previously, during the performance meeting, Zhangjiadekou Vice General Manager Wu Bin of China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co. analyzed that the land market in 2026 is expected to continue operating at low levels overall, with some localized hotspots.

Wu Bin stated that in 2026, China Merchants Shekou will continue its investment principles of focusing on key regions and cities, adopting a sales-driven approach, and carefully selecting projects. Based on market conditions and cash flow, and while meeting the “three red lines” and balancing scale and profit, each project must meet the “six good” investment standards to ensure effective resource allocation, with a focus on project turnover speed and profit realization.

From this perspective, the current “small spring” in the real estate market can help stabilize and recover the market throughout the year, but its sustainability depends on multiple factors. Cao Jingjing, General Manager of the Index Research Department at CRIC, reminds that market stabilization will be a gradual process, and ongoing momentum relies on macroeconomic fundamentals such as residents’ income expectations and housing price expectations improving substantively.